commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $126.05/MWh with demand at 5,666 MW as of 06:30 AEST, and the market is in the middle of a sustained evening ramp. The demand trajectory over the past two hours tells the story clearly: from 5,088 MW at 06:00 AEST, demand has climbed nearly 600 MW in 30 minutes, tracking the classic autumn evening heating load profile. This ramp has kept prices locked in the $120–$170/MWh band since approximately 05:00 AEST, with brief spikes to $182.69/MWh and $167.71/MWh in the 05:25–05:30 AEST window as the market tightened. The generation mix at this interval shows brown coal at 2,196 MW and gas OCGT at 110 MW carrying the bulk of scheduled output, with wind contributing only 21 MW and solar at zero given the overnight timing — leaving the market with limited flexible headroom as demand rises.

The day's price-demand relationship has been starkly bimodal. Overnight between roughly 13:40 and 15:30 AEST (UTC+10 offset applied), demand bottomed near 2,700–3,100 MW and prices ran persistently negative, reaching as low as -$6.01/MWh, reflecting supply surplus at the system trough. The morning ramp from 15:50 AEST compressed that gap rapidly: demand crossed 4,000 MW around 15:50 AEST and prices moved from near-zero to $21/MWh within ten minutes, then continued their ascent through the peak demand window of 18:00–19:00 AEST where demand hit a daily high near 6,220 MW and prices repeatedly touched $182–$243/MWh. The price sensitivity is acute — each 200–300 MW demand increment above 5,500 MW has consistently produced $50–$80/MWh step-ups in this session.

Forecast data for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST intervals (UTC 21:00–21:30) points to a price range of $124–$261/MWh, with the wide dispersion in successive AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts indicating genuine supply stack uncertainty as demand continues its evening climb. The most recent forecasts coalesce around $130–$155/MWh for 07:00 AEST, but outlier runs to $261/MWh signal the market remains one contingency or generator rebid away from a sharp move. Demand is forecast to continue rising before the overnight trough reasserts from approximately 08:30–09:00 AEST onwards.

Traders and demand-side managers should note that AEMO has issued manifestly incorrect inputs reviews under NER clause 3.9.2B covering every interval from 05:30 through 06:30 AEST today, with only the 04:40 AEST interval confirmed unchanged. The 06:30 AEST interval is still under active review. Prices published for these intervals carry revision risk, and any material repricing of early-morning intervals could affect settlement exposure for positions established overnight. The load optimisation windows confirm that the deepest price relief arrives post-08:30 AEST when overnight demand softens back toward the 3,000–4,000 MW range and prices are forecast to return to low single digits or negative territory.