regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $100.93/MWh at 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the sub-zero territory that dominated the overnight period, where prices bottomed out at -$8.80/MWh between roughly 11:00 and 13:00 AEST. The 06:00–07:30 AEST window saw prices climb from $81.75/MWh to a morning peak of $111.11/MWh as demand surged from around 6,550 MW to a daily high near 7,690 MW, before easing back to the current 5,710 MW as the shoulder period sets in. The 24-hour arc is a textbook Sunday demand curve: deep overnight lows driven by supply surplus, a sharp morning ramp, and a gradual afternoon taper.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 2,913 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW, solar at 1.3 MW, and gas OCGT at negligible output (0.06 MW). Total metered generation visible in the dispatch data sits well below the 5,710 MW demand figure, which points to significant behind-the-meter rooftop solar and interstate flows making up the balance — consistent with the low metered renewable penetration reading. Renewables are contributing just 2.91% of metered generation at the current interval, a significant drop from the overnight high of 20.75% recorded around 09:00–09:30 AEST when rooftop solar had not yet peaked but coal was running lighter. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8544 tCO2/MWh, essentially flat since approximately 17:30–18:00 AEST, reflecting the stable, coal-heavy dispatch stack through the morning and midday periods.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) point to $89.74/MWh on the most recent run, with the 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval forecast at $57.57/MWh — a clear step-down as morning demand recedes and the midday solar contribution builds. Earlier predispatch runs had pencilled in the 07:00 interval at $40–$55/MWh, so the latest forecast has revised upward, suggesting the market is seeing tighter supply conditions than anticipated in this transition window. Load window data shows negative prices re-emerging from approximately 08:00 AEST onwards through the midday period, with the deepest forecast prices around -$25/MWh centred on the 10:00–14:30 AEST window, consistent with peak rooftop solar suppressing residual demand.

Traders and settlement teams should note an extensive series of active AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for intervals spanning 04:30 through to 16:30 AEST today. Two earlier intervals — 03:25 and 02:25 AEST — have been confirmed unchanged following review. The volume of under-review intervals is unusually high and covers a contiguous block through the overnight and early morning negative-price period; any positions settled against those intervals carry revision risk until AEMO closes out the review process. Sustainability managers calculating emissions factors for this period should treat carbon intensity data for those intervals as potentially subject to change if dispatch outcomes are revised.