NEM Overview

Spot prices are tightly clustered across the NEM this Sunday morning (06:25 AEST), ranging from $92.59/MWh in QLD to $110.22/MWh in TAS, with NSW at $109.23/MWh, SA at $102.44/MWh, and VIC at $100.50/MWh. The $17.63/MWh spread between QLD and TAS is relatively modest, and the NSW–QLD differential of $16.64/MWh is consistent with the NSW1–QLD1 interconnector sitting at its binding import limit of -708.47 MW — Queensland is exporting hard into NSW and the constraint is the reason prices haven't fully converged. VIC is exporting 277 MW into NSW and 182 MW into SA via V-SA, both flows well within their limits. The Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow this interval.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 40.5% per the scored metrics, though the regional picture is highly uneven at 06:25 AEST. SA leads at 92.96% renewable with 541 MW of wind and no solar online, running on just 41 MW of gas CCGT and importing small volumes from VIC. TAS is at 100% renewable — 713 MW of hydro and 17 MW of wind meeting its 1,157 MW demand. At the other end, QLD is at 2.88% renewable with 2,923 MW of black coal and 87 MW of hydro; there is no solar or wind generation of note, consistent with pre-dawn conditions and low wind. NSW is at 7.99% renewable (69 MW wind, 367 MW hydro, 5,016 MW black coal), and VIC at 10.21% (246 MW wind, 17 MW hydro, 2,204 MW brown coal, 110 MW gas OCGT). Carbon intensity reflects this spread: SA is at 0.03 tCO2/MWh and TAS at 0.00 tCO2/MWh, while QLD sits at 0.85 tCO2/MWh, VIC at 1.07 tCO2/MWh, and NSW at 0.81 tCO2/MWh.

The dominant market notice issue today is a sustained series of AEMO "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering every trading interval from approximately 03:55 through to 06:25 AEST — more than 30 consecutive intervals across all regions. Two earlier intervals (02:25 and 03:25) have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of the morning's pricing remains under active review. Traders should treat current price signals with caution: if AEMO determines incorrect inputs were applied, revised prices could materially differ from the $92–$110/MWh range currently showing. Grid stress scores at 80.4 and price stability at 78.1 are elevated, likely reflecting both the volume of review notices and the binding NSW–QLD interconnector constraint.

Looking ahead through the day, solar potential is currently zero across all regions with overnight temperatures running cold — Sydney at 8.1°C, Melbourne at 4.7°C, and Hobart at 2.7°C. Heating demand is significant in