commodity demand vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $108.72/MWh with demand at 4,763 MW as of 06:30 AEST, reflecting the tail end of the evening demand ramp. The day traced a textbook autumn profile: demand bottomed near 3,088 MW around 13:45 AEST during the overnight trough, when prices tracked at or below $0/MWh for several consecutive intervals, before climbing sharply through the morning ramp. Demand peaked at approximately 6,120 MW around 18:30 AEST, coinciding with prices consistently in the $105–$128/MWh band — a clear sensitivity of roughly $15–20/MWh per 500 MW increment of demand above 5,500 MW. The evening's highest sustained pricing clustered between 17:00 and 19:00 AEST as demand held in the 5,000–6,100 MW range and solar output dropped to zero.
The current generation mix shows brown coal at 2,196 MW, gas OCGT at 109 MW, wind at 290 MW, and hydro at 17 MW, with solar contributing nothing at this hour. Renewable penetration sits at 11.77% and carbon intensity is 1.0525 tCO2/MWh. The price is now easing from its intra-evening peak as demand pulls back from the 6,000+ MW highs seen earlier — the $108.72/MWh print is moderately elevated but consistent with this demand level drawing on higher-cost dispatchable plant.
Looking ahead through today, forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are centred around $107.90/MWh in the most recent run, suggesting prices remain firm while demand holds above 4,700 MW. The forecast then steps sharply lower: the 07:30 AEST window is priced at approximately $33/MWh and intervals from 08:00 AEST onwards are forecast deeply negative, ranging from -$3/MWh through to -$25/MWh across the overnight and morning trough periods. This maps directly to the expected demand collapse below 3,200 MW between roughly 09:00 and 15:00 AEST, when Sunday's reduced industrial load combines with midday solar generation to suppress both net demand and price. The morning ramp from around 16:30 AEST is where prices are forecast to lift back toward positive territory, with the 17:00 AEST interval carrying a $7–$23/MWh forecast depending on the run.
Traders should note AEMO has issued a substantial run of "prices subject to review" market notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 05:00 through 06:30 AEST this morning. These span over 30 consecutive intervals and remain active, meaning finalised prices for a portion of today's early morning period — which includes several deeply negative dispatch intervals — are subject to potential revision. Demand-side participants with flexible load should watch for confirmation or correction of those intervals before settling exposure for today's trading day.