NEM Overview

Spot prices are moderate across the NEM's eastern regions at the 06:30 AEST interval, ranging from $55.10/MWh in SA to $88.16/MWh in Tasmania, with NSW at $79.00/MWh and QLD at $77.94/MWh sitting close together. The $33/MWh spread between SA and Tasmania is the standout today — SA is being suppressed by strong wind output (663.71 MW, 84.74% renewable penetration, carbon intensity of just 0.07 tCO2/MWh), while Tasmania at $88.16/MWh is the priciest region on the eastern grid despite running 100% renewable via hydro (604.12 MW) and wind (113.10 MW). Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is sitting at zero flow this interval, meaning Tasmania is not exporting to Victoria, which likely contributes to its relative price isolation. VIC1–NSW1 is carrying 757.65 MW northward, near the upper end of typical daytime flows, keeping Victoria's price at $67.16/MWh below NSW despite total VIC demand of 4,531 MW being served predominantly by brown coal (2,196 MW) and wind (411.62 MW).

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 21.4% per the gridIQ scores, which reflects the overnight timing — solar is at zero across all regions and wind is the sole variable renewable contributor. Heating demand is elevated in Tasmania (11.9°C deficit), Victoria, and NSW (both around 8°C deficit) with temperatures at 6.1°C, 9.7°C, and 10.0°C respectively, consistent with a mid-autumn Saturday morning load profile. Total NEM demand across the five eastern regions sits at approximately 19,570 MW. The grid stress score of 72.9 and carbon intensity score of 39.9 reflect a coal-heavy overnight mix in NSW (5,460.70 MW black coal, 0.791 tCO2/MWh) and QLD (2,847.75 MW black coal, 0.854 tCO2/MWh) with no gas CCGT or OCGT dispatch in either region this interval.

Two active network notices are material today. The Tarrone–Heywood/APD 500 kV line unplanned outage (constraint set V-HYTR invoked at 12:00 hrs) is binding interconnector limits on V-SA, T-V-MNSP1, VIC1–NSW1, and NSW1–QLD1 — the V-SA flow of -236.81 MW is already at its import limit, confirming this constraint is active and limiting how much Victoria can draw from or push to SA. Separately, AEMO directed Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 in SA to synchronise for voltage control yesterday morning, an intervention that flags ongoing synchronous inertia management in SA given high asynchronous wind penetration. The MSATS eMDM maintenance window scheduled for 26 April (10:00–14:00 AEST) has no bearing on today's trading but is worth noting for settlement and metering teams planning ahead.

With no solar generation until approximately 07:30–08:00 AEST and Saturday demand unlikely to produce an evening peak above weekday levels, prices are expected to remain contained through the morning. The key watch today is whether the Tar