NEM Overview

Spot prices at 6:35 AEST show a wide spread across the NEM, with SA1 the highest at $103.44/MWh and TAS1 elevated at $88.20/MWh, while VIC1 sits at the opposite end at $31.69/MWh. NSW1 is at $57.06/MWh and QLD1 at $71.69/MWh. The VIC1-to-SA1 spread of roughly $72/MWh is being driven by heavy export flows out of Victoria: the V-SA interconnector is carrying 501.61 MW and V-S-MNSP1 a further 169.5 MW, both binding at their export limits. VIC1-NSW1 is also binding at 735.14 MW northward. SA1's local generation is 228.2 MW from gas CCGT, 97.75 MW from gas OCGT, and 201.26 MW of wind — demand sits at 1,355 MW, meaning the region is leaning on interconnector imports to balance, which is sustaining the price premium.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 23.8% against a grid stress score of 68.4, reflecting the overnight period with solar at zero across all regions. TAS1 is running 100% renewable — 493.8 MW of hydro and 255.05 MW of wind serving 1,161.85 MW of demand — with carbon intensity at 0 tCO2/MWh. SA1 follows at 38.17% renewable (0.3326 tCO2/MWh). NSW1 and QLD1 are the lowest, at 8.97% and 3.48% respectively, with black coal providing 5,339 MW in NSW and 2,461 MW in QLD, resulting in intensities of 0.8011 and 0.8494 tCO2/MWh. VIC1's 662 MW of wind sits alongside 2,007 MW of brown coal output, yielding 25.37% renewable penetration and 0.8884 tCO2/MWh — the highest carbon intensity on the NEM. Cold overnight temperatures are sustaining heating load across the south: NSW1 sits at 9.5°C with a heating demand index of 8.5, TAS1 at 6.7°C with 11.3, which underpins the firmer overnight demand profile in those regions.

The most relevant active market notice is the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty 220 kV dual-circuit reclassification in VIC1, which was raised as a credible contingency due to lightning at 00:54 AEST and remains active. This affects the same corridor that saw multiple reclassification cycles through Thursday, and traders should note it has not yet been cancelled as of this briefing. The Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) is currently showing zero flow in both directions with import and export limits both at or near zero, suggesting the link remains constrained — consistent with the Tasmania 220 kV lightning contingency activity seen on the Gordon–Chapel St corridor earlier in the week, and the broader pattern of TAS transmission instability from recent storm activity. With solar offering no output until after 07:00 AEST and wind potential low in NSW and QLD, prices in those regions are unlikely to soften materially before the morning ramp, and the SA premium is