commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $31.69/MWh at 06:35 AEST with demand at 4,943 MW — well off today's morning peak of 6,119 MW reached around 18:10 AEST. That peak demand level coincided with prices pushing to $35.94–$42.31/MWh, demonstrating clear price sensitivity once demand cleared the 6,000 MW threshold. The demand-price relationship through today's session has been instructive: the overnight trough of approximately 3,365 MW (around 11:35–12:00 AEST) produced sustained negative prices as low as -$32.34/MWh, while the step back above 5,000 MW from 14:30 AEST onwards progressively lifted prices into the $19–$52/MWh band. A single interval spike to $52.69/MWh at 23:10 AEST (4,980 MW demand) signals that supply-side tightness, not just volume, is influencing price formation at moderate demand levels.

Demand is now on a rising trajectory from the post-solar trough, climbing from around 3,970 MW at 03:00 AEST back toward 4,944 MW currently and continuing to build into the Friday evening residential load period. Forecast prices for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging in the $35–$52/MWh range across recent pre-dispatch runs, down considerably from early-morning forecasts that pointed to $70–$81/MWh, suggesting the market has re-assessed evening supply adequacy as the day's generation stack became clearer. The current generation mix — 2,007 MW brown coal, 662 MW wind, 110 MW gas OCGT, 58 MW hydro, zero solar — leaves renewables at 25.4% of output, with carbon intensity at 0.8884 tCO2/MWh, the highest point recorded today as wind contribution has faded from overnight levels above 47%.

The key demand-side risk for the evening ahead is the pace of load build between now and approximately 08:30–09:00 AEST (Friday evening peak). If demand tracks toward the 5,200–5,400 MW range seen at comparable times during the early-morning rise, pre-dispatch forecasts at $50–$53/MWh for 07:30 AEST look credible. AEMO market notices flagged a lightning-related reclassification of the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty 220 kV double circuit as a credible contingency event, though this was subsequently cancelled at 00:54 AEST; no active network constraints are currently binding in VIC1 that would artificially tighten the supply stack. Demand-side participants should note that load windows from 08:00 AEST onward are priced at near-zero to mildly negative in pre-dispatch, confirming the market anticipates demand softening into the post-peak overnight period as it did on the same cycle overnight.