Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 15 April 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $233.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a sharp escalation from the $85–$100/MWh range that prevailed through the morning peak and well above the subdued sub-$1/MWh prints seen in the early hours of today. The 24-hour price history shows a classic diurnal arc — prices bottomed near zero overnight between roughly 07:30–08:30 AEST, climbed steadily through the morning peak to a sustained $120–$155/MWh band from 07:00–14:00 AEST, eased back into the $70–$95/MWh range through the afternoon, and have now spiked sharply into the evening as demand firms at 6,427 MW. Grid stress is elevated, with AEMO's score sitting at 66.3/100.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is heavily concentrated in black coal at 2,880 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.06 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewables are contributing just 2.9% of generation at this interval — the lowest point in the 24-hour carbon history dataset, which peaked at 18.2% renewable penetration in the early overnight hours around 09:30 AEST. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8545 tCO2/MWh, near the top of the day's range; intensity was meaningfully lower overnight (as low as 0.72 tCO2/MWh around 09:30 AEST) when the renewable share was higher, reflecting the overnight wind and rooftop solar contribution that has since dropped away entirely.

Predispatch forecasts point to a rapid normalisation from the current elevated price. The 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $118.73/MWh — a significant step down from the current $233.01/MWh — with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at $73.63/MWh. Load window data reinforces this trajectory: prices are forecast to turn negative from approximately 08:00 AEST onwards, with the deepest negative prints (as low as -$25.01/MWh) expected between 11:30–12:30 AEST, coinciding with peak solar generation as the sun rises and rooftop and utility solar ramp. This is a standard Queensland summer-shoulder pattern — a high-price evening event followed by an extended negative or near-zero price window during daylight hours.

The most relevant active market notice for Queensland is the cancellation of the Chalumbin–Turkinje 132 kV line reclassification (Notice 141084), which confirms the credible contingency classification on those two north Queensland lines has been revoked — lightning activity has cleared and no constraint sets remain invoked. A separate power system event notice (141087) records the non-credible trip of both JLysaght–Tyabb 220 kV lines in Victoria at 15:06 AEST, with 16 MW of bulk load disconnected; AEMO has not reclassified that event and it has no direct Queensland constraint implication. Traders holding long positions through the current price spike should note the predispatch step-down is steep and imminent — the window between $233/MWh and sub-$10/MWh is forecast to close