NEM Overview

Queensland is the standout price outlier this interval, sitting at $233.01/MWh against a NEM-wide backdrop that is otherwise subdued — NSW at $98.14/MWh, Tasmania at $88.20/MWh, and both Victoria and South Australia near the floor at $11.00/MWh and $11.96/MWh respectively. The QLD premium reflects tight local supply conditions: the region is running on 2,880 MW of black coal and just 86 MW of hydro, with solar at zero in this evening interval and no meaningful interconnector relief — the NSW1-QLD1 link is flowing 80.64 MW southbound (into NSW), leaving Queensland to clear its own demand of 6,427 MW from local plant. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is binding at 960 MW flowing north into NSW, which is helping suppress Victorian prices while partially supporting NSW.

Victoria's near-floor price reflects strong wind output at 1,545 MW alongside 1,546 MW of brown coal, producing a combined local surplus that is being exported northward. The VIC1-NSW1 binding constraint is the key transmission bottleneck to watch through the morning — with the interconnector already at its export limit, any uplift in Victorian wind will have limited ability to relieve prices in NSW or QLD. South Australia's wind is generating 360 MW, with 408 MW flowing east on V-SA into Victoria, explaining the price convergence between those two regions. Tasmania is running 100% renewable this interval — 424 MW hydro and 192 MW wind — and exporting 125 MW to Victoria via Basslink (T-V-MNSP1).

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 18.1% per the current gridIQ score, a figure that reflects the after-dark collapse of solar across all regions. Carbon intensity varies sharply: Tasmania is at 0 tCO2/MWh, SA at 0.11 tCO2/MWh with 78% renewable penetration, Victoria at 0.61 tCO2/MWh (49% renewable), and NSW and QLD at 0.82 and 0.85 tCO2/MWh respectively with renewable shares of just 6.9% and 2.9% in this interval. Grid stress is elevated at 66.3, consistent with the QLD price spike and the binding VIC1-NSW1 interconnector. Price stability is low at 15.8, signalling continued volatility risk.

The active market notice of most immediate relevance is the VIC non-credible contingency event from 15:06 AEST yesterday — the JLysaght–Tyabb 1 and 2 220 kV lines tripped, disconnecting 16 MW of bulk load. AEMO has assessed the cause as identified and unlikely to recur, and no load shedding was instructed, but the notice remains active. Traders with Victorian exposure should confirm current network status before the morning ramp. As solar returns to all mainland regions through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window, expect downward price pressure in SA and VIC, with QLD likely remaining elevated until its daytime solar fleet comes online to ease thermal plant margins.