regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $85.53/MWh against a total demand of 6,381 MW as of 06:35 AEST. That current price is materially softer than the morning peak, which saw intervals touch $231.70/MWh at 18:15 AEST and sustained readings above $118/MWh through the 17:00–18:00 AEST window. The overnight period delivered the day's most dramatic movement: prices turned negative from roughly 12:20 AEST through to the pre-dawn ramp, with intervals as low as -$4.09/MWh as supply outpaced demand during the off-peak trough. The day-to-evening price trajectory has followed a textbook autumn demand curve — deep overnight lows, a sharp morning peak, a mid-afternoon plateau in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh, and a modest evening step-up now sitting in the mid-$80s.

The generation mix is heavily weighted to black coal, which is producing 2,629 MW and accounts for the vast majority of in-region output. Hydro contributes 85.76 MW, solar is delivering a negligible 0.5 MW reflecting post-sunset conditions, and gas OCGT output is effectively zero at 0.06 MW. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.2% in the current interval — consistent with the pattern seen across the daylight and evening periods today, where renewables have ranged between 2.9% and 3.5% since solar generation faded in the morning. The overnight period showed higher renewable shares of up to 25%, driven by wind-related contributions captured in the carbon history, before the daytime mix consolidated around coal-dominated dispatch.

Carbon intensity registers 0.8518 tCO2/MWh — at the upper end of today's range and up from the overnight low of approximately 0.66 tCO2/MWh when renewable penetration was higher. The intensity has been essentially flat since 08:00 AEST, hovering between 0.850 and 0.855 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the current generation mix showing minimal renewable contribution.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing from the current $85.53/MWh level. The 07:00 AEST target interval is forecast at $82.19/MWh in the most recent predispatch run, down from earlier today's forecasts of $102–$110/MWh for the same period — a meaningful downward revision as actual evening demand has come in at or below earlier expectations. The 08:00 AEST interval is forecast in the $55–$63/MWh range across recent predispatch runs, suggesting a softer price profile through the late evening as demand retreats. Overnight intervals from around 08:30 AEST through to early morning are forecast near zero to low single digits, with negative price windows again anticipated from roughly 10:00–14:00 AEST (midnight–04:00 AEST) based on load window data. The morning ramp from 15:30 AEST onward is forecast to reach $40–$50/MWh, with the following shoulder period stepping to the $50–$60/MWh range.

On market notices, the most relevant QLD1 item involves the Chalumbin–Turkinje 132 kV lines (No.7165 and No.7166). AEMO reclass