NEM Overview

South Australia is the clear price outlier this morning, with the SA1 spot price at 170.44 $/MWh against a narrow band of 81–96 $/MWh across the eastern mainland regions. The V-SA interconnector is flowing at its export limit of 466.22 MW and V-S-MNSP1 is also binding at 170.64 MW — both constrained — which explains the SA premium. Local SA generation sits at 139 MW gas OCGT and 202 MW gas CCGT alongside 100 MW wind, with no solar output at this evening hour. NSW1 (84.79 $/MWh, 7,453 MW) and QLD1 (85.53 $/MWh, 6,382 MW) are closely aligned, VIC1 prints 81.31 $/MWh at 5,217 MW, and TAS1 sits at 96.24 $/MWh with the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) at zero flow, isolating Tasmania from the mainland price signal at this interval.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is running at 18.7%, a modest figure reflecting the post-sunset period. Tasmania is 100% hydro and wind (597 MW hydro, 114 MW wind) and carries a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh. SA records 0.44 tCO2/MWh with 21% renewable share. Victoria's 581 MW wind output contributes to a 21% renewable share, but 2,062 MW of brown coal pulls its carbon intensity to 0.94 tCO2/MWh — the highest in the NEM. NSW is dominated by 5,836 MW black coal with 455 MW hydro and 81 MW wind, yielding 0.80 tCO2/MWh and 9.25% renewables. Queensland runs near entirely on 2,629 MW black coal with negligible renewables (3.2%), at 0.85 tCO2/MWh. The grid stress score of 77.3 and market conditions score of 34.2 indicate elevated system tightness relative to normal, consistent with the interconnector binding constraints into SA.

The most relevant active notice is the QLD1 contingency reclassification for the Chalumbin–Turkinje 132 kV double-circuit (notices 141083 and 141084): the lines were temporarily reclassified as a credible contingency due to lightning activity but have since been cancelled with no constraint sets invoked, so there is no active binding impact in Queensland. Traders should note that the SA price elevation is structural at this interval given both import interconnectors into the region are at their limits; any softening will depend on reduced local demand or a change in Victorian export capacity. With solar absent until morning and demand in SA at 1,409 MW, gas plant is carrying the marginal load and prices are unlikely to compress materially before the overnight demand trough.