Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 13 April 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $120.52/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,359 MW. This is materially elevated compared to the overnight trough, where prices ran negative — reaching as low as -$3.01/MWh between roughly 11:00–14:00 AEST — before a sharp morning ramp pushed prices above $100/MWh from around 17:00 AEST and into the current period. The morning peak saw several intervals spike above $200/MWh, including a high of $392.88/MWh at 15:30 AEST, before settling into the $100–$125/MWh band that has persisted through the evening. The 24-hour price profile reflects a pronounced overnight surplus followed by tight supply conditions through the business day.

The generation mix at the most recent trading interval (06:00 AEST) is dominated by black coal at 2,825 MW. Hydro contributes 86 MW, gas OCGT is effectively offline at 0.06 MW, and solar output is zero given the overnight timing. Renewables are contributing just 2.97% of generation at present — consistent with the post-sunset profile seen since around 08:00 AEST, when solar output dropped to nil and renewable penetration fell from a daytime high of around 30% (recorded in the early overnight period, driven by wind) to its current near-floor level. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8539 tCO2/MWh, which has been largely flat since mid-morning and reflects the coal-heavy generation profile; this compares to overnight readings as low as 0.61 tCO2/MWh when renewable penetration was higher.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging around $95.82/MWh in the most recent runs, down from earlier projections of $123.57/MWh, suggesting the market expects some price softening through the late evening. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval is forecast at approximately $73.81–$75.80/MWh across multiple predispatch cycles, pointing to a continued step-down as demand eases overnight. Load window data confirms conditions turn highly price-favourable from 08:00 AEST onward, with multiple intervals projecting near-zero or negative prices through the early hours of 14 April as overnight surplus conditions re-establish.

Two market notices are directly relevant to Queensland pricing today. AEMO activated the NRM_QLD1_NSW1 negative settlement residue constraint at 15:35 AEST on 13 April after negative residues accumulated on the QLD-to-NSW interconnector; this constraint was subsequently cancelled at 16:15 AEST, indicating the interconnector flow imbalance was resolved within the hour. Separately, AEMO has flagged that prices for several intervals between 15:50 and 16:15 AEST are subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs — traders should note those intervals may be revised. A Telstra Melbourne telephony outage affecting AEMO inbound and outbound calls is scheduled for 01:00–06:00 AEST on 14 April, with calls rerouted via Perth; this is an operational continuity item rather than a market dispatch issue but is worth noting for participants contacting AEMO