NEM Overview

Spot prices are sitting in a tight $115–$138/MWh band across the NEM's eastern regions this morning, with South Australia the clear outlier at $138/MWh against demand of just 1,341 MW. That SA premium is being driven by constrained import capacity: the V-SA interconnector is running at its export limit of 599.66 MW and the V-S-MNSP1 (Heywood's DC component) is binding at 65 MW, leaving SA heavily reliant on local gas — 230 MW of CCGT and 110 MW of OCGT — with wind contributing only 19 MW. A Forecast LOR1 notice remains active for SA covering 0130–0200 AEST today (14 April), with forecast reserves of 258 MW against a requirement of 406 MW; traders should watch early-morning conditions closely. Tasmania is the cheapest region at $88.16/MWh, exporting 92 MW to Victoria via Basslink, with its grid running entirely on hydro (564 MW) and wind (187 MW).

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 19.3% against a grid stress score of 73.3, reflecting the post-sunset generation mix. NSW is carrying 5,485 MW of black coal alongside 492 MW of hydro and 134 MW of wind, with gas offline and solar zeroed out — carbon intensity is 0.79 tCO2/MWh. Victoria's mix is 2,134 MW brown coal, 412 MW wind, 110 MW gas OCGT, and minimal hydro, producing the highest regional intensity on the board at 1.00 tCO2/MWh. Queensland runs 2,825 MW black coal with negligible wind and solar at night, intensity at 0.85 tCO2/MWh. The QLD–NSW interconnector (NSW1-QLD1) shows a net 77 MW flow southbound into NSW, and a negative settlement residue constraint on the QLD-to-NSW direction was active briefly during the afternoon before being cancelled at 1615 AEST.

Two pricing intervals from 13 April — 16:05 through 16:15 AEST — remain under AEMO review for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, so settlement figures around that window are not yet final. A planned Telstra Melbourne inbound telephony outage is scheduled between 0100–0600 AEST today, with AEMO advising reduced call redundancy during that window. As solar returns from mid-morning, watch SA and VIC prices for downward pressure, though the V-SA binding constraint will limit how much mainland generation can displace SA's local gas dispatch. The grid stress score of 73.3 warrants attention through the early hours ahead of today's demand ramp.