commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $115.68/MWh with total demand at 5,214 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Demand has been climbing steadily since the overnight trough — it bottomed near 4,298 MW around 14:00 AEST before recovering through the evening. The price-demand relationship today is tightly correlated: when demand surged to its intraday peak of 6,542 MW at 18:40 AEST this morning, prices were firmly in the $100–$131/MWh range, with the session high of $131.40/MWh coinciding with demand above 6,400 MW at 19:00 AEST. As demand fell through the afternoon solar-assisted trough to around 4,200–4,300 MW, prices compressed into the $90–$94/MWh band — still elevated by overnight standards but well below the morning peak. The current 5,214 MW reading reflects the post-solar evening demand build that is now underway.

The forecast price signal for the next two intervals is unambiguous about where this demand trajectory is heading. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $114.96/MWh, and the 07:30 AEST interval carries a forecast of $124.77/MWh — a step-up that tracks directly with demand rising back through the 5,000–5,500 MW range as evening household load accumulates. Forecasts issued across the trading day have consistently priced 07:30 AEST in the $123–$156/MWh range, with the upward revision trend through the afternoon suggesting the market is pricing in a firmer demand build than initially expected. The generation mix at this interval — 2,111 MW brown coal, 337 MW wind, 113 MW gas OCGT, 16 MW hydro, zero solar — means there is no further variable output from solar to soften the evening ramp.

Grid stress is scored at 73.3 out of 100, consistent with a market operating with limited headroom at current demand levels. The carbon intensity of 1.028 tCO2/MWh is at its highest point in today's dataset, reflecting wind's share of the mix falling to just 13.7% renewables penetration as evening demand rises without solar offsetting coal dispatch. Flexible load operators with exposure to spot prices face a clear window: load windows identify excellent-quality opportunities from 08:30 AEST onwards, when prices are forecast to retrace sharply as overnight demand falls back below 5,000 MW and supply conditions ease. The immediate two-to-three hour period carries the day's highest price risk given the demand trajectory and the absence of any offsetting generation to displace marginal coal and OCGT.