Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 12 April 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $66.79/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 6,197 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours, the price profile shows a pronounced overnight trough — prices turned negative from around 07:30 AEST, bottoming at -$25.01/MWh through the pre-dawn period as overnight demand fell to a low of approximately 3,556 MW, before recovering sharply into the morning peak. Prices reached a 24-hour high of $95.82/MWh at 18:00 AEST during the morning demand ramp, then moderated through the midday and afternoon periods into the current $65–70/MWh band. The current price sits below the morning peak average of roughly $85–92/MWh, indicating the market has settled into a more stable mid-range.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 1,934 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW, solar at 3.2 MW, and gas OCGT at just 0.06 MW — noting the generation data reflects the 06:30 AEST interval when solar output is negligible. Renewable penetration sits at 4.41% at this interval, consistent with the overnight and early morning pattern seen throughout the past 18 hours. During the midday period renewable penetration reached a day's high of approximately 23% (around 16:00–16:30 AEST), driven by solar, before dropping back as the sun set. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.8412 tCO2/MWh, which is at the higher end of today's range; the lowest intensity of the past 24 hours was 0.6759 tCO2/MWh recorded at 16:00 AEST when solar penetration was at its peak.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are converging around $68.66/MWh, broadly in line with current conditions. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) target shows forecasts clustering near $56–57/MWh across multiple runs, suggesting a moderate price step-down within the next hour. Flexible load windows through the 08:00–10:00 AEST period show prices forecast to go negative again (ranging from around -$3 to -$25/MWh), which aligns with the pattern seen on the previous overnight cycle and reflects generation surplus conditions as overnight baseload runs ahead of low-demand periods. Load-shifting or battery charging activity during the 09:00–10:00 AEST window (23:00–01:00 UTC) is flagged as excellent quality by the load window data.

The only active market notice with direct Queensland relevance is Notice 141032, which recorded a non-conformance event for unit MPP_2 in QLD1 on 11 April — a short-duration, low-magnitude event (-15 MW for 10 minutes) with no ongoing operational impact. The more active notice to monitor is Notice 141048, which declares a Forecast Lack of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the South Australian region from 01:30–02:00 AEST on 14 April, with forecast capacity reserve falling to 258 MW against a requirement of 406 MW. While the notice applies to SA, any tightening of interconnector flows on QNI or VIC–SA links around that window could influence Queensland dispatch conditions