commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $55.56/MWh with demand at 5,137 MW as of 06:30 AEST — the beginning of the Monday morning ramp. That demand level is already 1,255 MW above the overnight trough of 3,882 MW recorded around 11:05 AEST on Sunday and is climbing. Today's price-demand relationship is direct and tight: once demand crossed 5,300 MW around 16:50–17:00 AEST on Sunday, prices jumped from near-zero or negative territory into the $22–$32/MWh band, and as demand pushed toward 6,250 MW during the morning peak, prices reached $49–$70/MWh. That 6,247 MW intraday peak between 18:25–19:15 AEST produced the day's highest sustained prices in the $55–$70/MWh range, illustrating a clear inflection above roughly 6,000 MW where supply tightens and higher-cost generation sets the price.

Today being Monday, the demand trajectory will follow a steeper weekday profile than Sunday's. The morning commercial and industrial load pickup is already underway, and demand is expected to continue rising through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window, likely targeting the 6,000–6,250 MW range that drove $50–$70/MWh pricing on Sunday. Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour period (21:00 UTC) are converging on $55.56/MWh across the most recent pre-dispatch runs, consistent with current spot and indicative of the market pricing in continued demand growth with no expectation of relief. An earlier forecast from 12:33 AEST pegged the same period at $94.73/MWh, with subsequent runs stepping down to the current $55.56/MWh cluster — a narrowing spread that suggests the dispatch stack is becoming clearer as the morning unfolds.

The overnight period provides useful context for today's demand-side floor. Between midnight and 05:00 AEST, demand held in the 3,880–4,270 MW band and prices were persistently negative, ranging from -$3.93/MWh to -$12.17/MWh, reflecting surplus generation relative to low overnight demand. That surplus condition disappeared rapidly once demand crossed the 5,000 MW threshold around 16:20 AEST, at which point prices moved firmly positive and continued rising in step with demand. Today's equivalent transition — from the current 5,137 MW and $55.56/MWh into a full morning peak — is the key price risk window for the next two to three hours.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is producing 2,213 MW from brown coal, 774 MW from wind, 71 MW from gas OCGT, and 17 MW from hydro, with solar at zero in the pre-sunrise period. As demand rises toward the morning peak, solar output will begin contributing from approximately 07:30–08:00 AEST onward and will place some downward pressure on prices through mid-morning. The critical price risk period is the 07:00–09:00 AEST window before solar generation becomes material, when demand is near its daily peak and the gas OCGT stack is likely to be the marginal setter. Demand-side managers and flexible load operators should treat the next 90–120 minutes as the highest-cost exposure window of