regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $78.08/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,663 MW — well below the morning peak of 8,157 MW recorded around 17:10–17:40 AEST. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices collapsed into sustained negative territory from roughly 11:25 AEST through the overnight hours (nadir of -$8.80/MWh around 11:05–12:35 AEST), before recovering sharply through the morning ramp, peaking at $150.21/MWh at 22:15 AEST and holding above $100/MWh for several hours across the mid-morning. Prices have since moderated through the afternoon and evening, settling in the $70–85/MWh band where they currently sit.

The current generation mix is heavily weighted to black coal at 1,947 MW, with hydro contributing 85.91 MW, solar at 2 MW, and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.06 MW — a combined reported output of approximately 2,036 MW against a 5,663 MW demand figure, indicating significant generation not captured in the current snapshot (likely additional thermal and grid-scale solar units not yet reflected in this interval). Renewable penetration sits at just 4.32% at this interval, consistent with the post-sunset period. Carbon intensity is 0.842 tCO2/MWh, near the upper end of today's range; during daylight hours, the intensity dipped as low as 0.674 tCO2/MWh (at 08:00 AEST) as solar penetration lifted renewable share to above 22%, before retreating as generation shifted back toward thermal sources through the afternoon and evening.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval point to prices of $62.95–$63/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at near-zero to negative territory as overnight demand troughs and overnight generation oversupply takes hold. Load window data confirms prices are expected to move firmly negative from approximately 08:30 AEST (07:30 UTC) onwards, with the deepest forecasts in the -$25 to -$65/MWh range through the 13:30–15:00 AEST window — consistent with the pattern of solar-driven oversupply during Queensland's daytime trough on a Sunday when commercial and industrial demand is suppressed. Flexible load operators and battery operators should note this extended negative price window as the primary opportunity of the day.

One Queensland-specific market notice is active: a non-conformance was declared for unit MPP_2 between 22:05 and 22:15 AEST (12:05–12:15 UTC) on 11 April, with a -15 MW deviation under constraint NC-Q_MPP_2. This has no ongoing operational impact. The bulk of active notices relate to Tasmanian transmission contingency reclassifications driven by lightning activity affecting multiple 220 kV circuits around Farrell, affecting the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector — these are TAS1 events and have indirect rather than direct price implications for QLD1, though any sustained Basslink constraint can influence NEM-wide dispatch and flow patterns on the QNI interconnector at the margin.