commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at -$3.55/MWh with demand at 4,196 MW at 6:30 AEST — a Sunday early-morning level that is climbing steadily from an overnight trough of around 3,630 MW reached near 10:10 AEST yesterday. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours is clear: negative prices have dominated throughout, with the deepest discounts of -$25/MWh or below coinciding with demand in the 3,630–3,800 MW range during the overnight valley. As demand lifted through the morning peak toward 5,950 MW, prices briefly turned positive, reaching $8.69/MWh across several intervals from 08:30–09:15 AEST — the only sustained positive pricing in the dataset. That 6,300 MW-range morning peak is now receding, and as demand tracks down through the afternoon, prices are settling back into negative territory in the -$3 to -$7/MWh band.

The generation mix at the current interval shows wind at 1,593 MW and brown coal at 1,057 MW providing the bulk of supply against a demand of 4,196 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 100 MW. Carbon intensity stands at 0.4925 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 57.92%. The extended run of negative prices — persistent for most of the past 18 hours — reflects surplus generation relative to this low Sunday demand base. The afternoon demand profile is unlikely to generate the tightness needed to push prices positive; forecasts for the 07:00–08:00 AEST period (21:00–22:00 UTC) point to -$2.80/MWh, consistent with continuing mild oversupply as demand hovers in the 4,200–4,500 MW range.

For today's outlook, demand is expected to follow a typical Sunday trajectory: a gradual morning build toward a modest peak before easing through the afternoon. Load windows signal the deepest negative prices — reaching below -$50/MWh in some modelled windows — are forecast for the 08:30–11:00 AEST period (22:30–01:00 UTC), when overnight-to-morning demand is at its lowest and wind output remains elevated. Flexible and price-responsive loads should note that the window from approximately 08:30 AEST onward carries significant negative price potential. The Yallourn–Rowville 220 kV N-2 contingency reclassification earlier in the day has since been revoked, removing that network constraint from the price-setting equation for now.