NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are moderate at the 06:30 AEST interval, ranging from $72.60/MWh in Tasmania to $78.93/MWh in Queensland, with NSW at $76.30/MWh. The standout readings are Victoria and South Australia, both clearing at $0/MWh — a direct consequence of strong wind output pressing against the export-bound VIC1-NSW1 interconnector, which is binding at its 639.77 MW export limit. That binding constraint, combined with the earlier negative settlement residues event on the NSW-to-VIC direction (NRM_NSW1_VIC1, active 19:00–19:45 AEST), reflects the price separation dynamic that played out overnight and continues to shape flows this morning. NSW is absorbing 639.77 MW from Victoria while simultaneously pushing 136.23 MW north into Queensland.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 28.8% per the gridIQ score. Victoria leads the contribution picture with 1,375.8 MW of wind against total regional generation of around 2,573 MW, giving a renewable share of approximately 53%, with carbon intensity at 0.543 tCO2/MWh. South Australia is running at 90.6% renewable penetration (0.046 tCO2/MWh) on 414.35 MW of wind supplemented by 43 MW of gas CCGT and 101.21 MW net import from Victoria via V-SA and V-S-MNSP1. Tasmania is fully renewable at 100% (272.58 MW wind, 273.77 MW hydro, 1,009.6 MW demand) with carbon intensity at zero, though it is exporting 58.48 MW to Victoria via Basslink. NSW remains the highest-intensity region at 0.807 tCO2/MWh with 5,031 MW of black coal and only 457 MW of wind active — solar is zero given the pre-dawn interval. Queensland mirrors that profile at 0.845 tCO2/MWh with 2,161 MW of black coal and negligible renewable output at this hour.

Tasmania warrants operational attention today. The Farrell-John Butters and Farrell-Rosebery-Newton-Queenstown lines remain reclassified as a credible contingency event due to ongoing lightning activity as of 06:04 AEST, following multiple reclassification cycles overnight across at least six separate line pairs — including the Farrell-Reece 220 kV double circuit, Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton 110 kV, Norwood-Scottsdale, and Tungatinah-Waddamana lines. While no constraint sets are currently invoked on most of these and no load shedding has occurred, the Farrell-Reece actual trip at 16:46 AEST yesterday (a non-credible contingency event driven by lightning) demonstrates that network exposure remains real. Engineers managing Basslink flows or Tasmanian hydro dispatch should track lightning activity closely through the morning.

Grid stress scores at 71.8 out of 100 and price stability at 27 reflect the combination of binding interconnector constraints, the overnight negative residues episode, and the active contingency notices. Saturday demand is typically lower than weekday peaks, which should ease stress as the morning progresses, though the solar ramp into midday could widen the VIC/