NEM Overview

Spot prices are sharply divergent across the NEM at 6:35 AEST. Queensland leads at $79.58/MWh with demand of 6,457 MW, while NSW sits close behind at $76.99/MWh on 7,348 MW. Tasmania clears at $50.20/MWh. The standout is Victoria and South Australia, both printing negative — VIC1 at -$3.09/MWh and SA1 at -$3.00/MWh — driven by strong wind output overwhelming local demand. Victoria is generating 1,661 MW of wind against total demand of 4,623 MW, while SA's 729 MW of wind against just 1,419 MW of demand pushes renewable penetration to 89.8% in that region. The VIC1–NSW1 interconnector is running at its export limit of 832.71 MW (binding), funnelling surplus Victorian generation north toward the higher-priced NSW market. The Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is also binding at its -150 MW import limit, meaning SA is absorbing as much Victorian wind as the link allows.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 28.4% per the current gridIQ score, though this figure reflects the evening trading window where solar has dropped to zero across all regions. Tasmania is 100% renewable on hydro (356 MW) and wind (244 MW). VIC1's renewable share is 59.3% on wind alone. NSW and QLD are running predominantly on black coal — NSW at 5,138 MW of black coal with just 9.1% renewable penetration, QLD at 2,539 MW black coal and 3.3% renewable. Carbon intensity reflects this: QLD is at 0.851 tCO2/MWh, NSW at 0.800 tCO2/MWh, against SA's 0.050 tCO2/MWh and TAS at zero. Grid stress is elevated at 72.2, consistent with the binding interconnector constraints and the price spread between regions.

The notice log carries a material operational item for Tasmania: the Farrell–John Butters and Farrell–Rosebery–Newton–Queenstown lines were reclassified as a credible contingency event overnight due to lightning activity, then cancelled at 4:09 AEST this morning. The Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is currently showing zero flow, which warrants watching given Tasmania's generation surplus — at 600 MW of combined hydro and wind against 1,040 MW of local demand, there is capacity to export but the interconnector is idle. Victorian transmission also saw repeated lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on the Eildon–Mt Beauty 220 kV lines and the Yallourn–Rowville 220 kV lines throughout the past 24 hours; all have been cancelled and no constraint sets remain active.

Looking ahead through today, the key dynamic is whether the NSW–VIC price spread sustains export flows on VIC1–NSW1 as Friday morning demand builds. SA and VIC negative or near-zero pricing is likely to persist into the early morning before demand lifts. WA1 is the outlier at $108.71/MWh on data from the prior settlement, reflecting the SWIS operating under a separate market structure. The MT PASA notice from 7 April confirms no forecast Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM, and no