Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 9 April 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$3.09/MWh with demand at 4,623 MW at 06:35 AEST, well into the evening ramp. The day's demand trajectory has been pronounced: a trough around 3,636 MW near 02:36 AEST, a morning peak touching 6,012 MW at 07:45 AEST, and a midday plateau in the 5,400–5,700 MW range before falling to a post-solar trough of approximately 3,730 MW around 17:45 AEST. Demand is now climbing again through the evening ramp, having risen roughly 900 MW from that afternoon low in under two hours. Despite this recovery in demand, prices remain negative, indicating supply continues to exceed the level required to push marginal costs above zero.
The price-demand relationship today has been notably decoupled during daylight hours. Peak demand of ~6,012 MW between 07:30–09:00 AEST coincided with prices ranging from -$5.02/MWh to +$17.99/MWh — brief positive spikes amid otherwise negative or near-zero pricing. Through the 14:00–17:00 AEST period, demand dropped into the 3,860–4,450 MW range and prices tracked deeper into negative territory, between -$3.06/MWh and -$5.27/MWh, consistent with surplus generation relative to consumption. The current evening demand build has not yet tightened the market sufficiently to drive prices positive; the most recent intervals are holding in the -$3.08 to -$3.09/MWh band despite demand rising through 4,600 MW.
The forward price signal for tonight is muted. Forecast RRPs for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST half-hour periods are near zero to slightly negative, with load window modelling pointing to prices between -$19.99/MWh and -$60/MWh in the 09:30–13:30 AEST (UTC) overnight window — equivalent to roughly 19:30–23:30 AEST tonight — driven by continued wind generation of 1,642 MW alongside 1,054 MW of brown coal running as baseload. As April demand softens with mild autumn conditions, the structural surplus visible throughout today is expected to persist overnight before solar returns tomorrow morning to reset the same cycle.
Two active AEMO market notices are relevant to Victoria's demand-side picture today. Lightning activity around the Eildon PS–Mt Beauty 220 kV corridor triggered multiple contingency reclassifications through the day, with the most recent cancellation confirmed at 03:19 AEST this morning. A non-conformance on MERCER01 (10 MW, 23:15–23:30 AEST last night) had negligible demand impact. Neither event materially constrained intra-Victorian transfer capacity or altered the demand-price dynamic observed today.