commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at -$2.50/MWh with demand at 4,580 MW at 06:30 AEST — a combination that reflects the afternoon solar generation window suppressing prices across the NEM. Today's demand trajectory tells a clear story: the market moved from a deep overnight trough around 3,165 MW (circa 13:00 AEST) up through a sharp morning ramp that peaked near 6,234 MW at 18:00 AEST, where prices held in the $117–$145/MWh range for an extended period. That morning peak is the critical reference point — the 3,000+ MW swing from overnight floor to morning peak produced a price movement of roughly $140/MWh, underscoring the extreme price sensitivity Victoria is exhibiting at current demand levels relative to available supply.

The afternoon period from roughly 23:00–03:30 AEST has been dominated by negative pricing, with prices touching as low as -$13.45/MWh as solar generation across the NEM outpaces scheduled demand. Current demand of 4,580 MW is rising — up from a recent low of around 3,710 MW at 03:00 AEST — and this upward trajectory is beginning to absorb the surplus that drove negative prices. Wind generation is providing 1,807 MW and brown coal 1,201 MW, with gas OCGT at 107 MW covering the balance alongside imports. The renewable share is 58% and carbon intensity sits at 0.49 tCO2/MWh, the lowest point in today's carbon history which opened above 1.10 tCO2/MWh during the overnight period.

The forward price signal for the coming hours is material. Forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST intervals (21:00–21:30 UTC) are clustering near -$2.50 to flat, consistent with the current price as demand rebuilds through the evening transition. However, the load windows data points to sustained negative pricing forecast well into tonight's overnight period — intervals from 08:30 AEST onwards are showing forecast prices from -$6.50 to -$33.78/MWh — suggesting that once demand passes today's evening peak and retreats, oversupply conditions are expected to return. The key price inflection to watch is the evening demand ramp: if tonight's peak approaches the 5,500–6,200 MW range seen this morning, prices will re-enter double-digit positive territory rapidly, as the morning ramp demonstrated a near-linear price response above 5,000 MW of demand.