regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $180.66/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with demand at 6,317 MW. This is elevated relative to the bulk of the trading day, which saw prices hold firmly in the $130–$160/MWh range through the morning and early afternoon peak before climbing sharply from around 06:00 AEST — the interval ending 06:10 AEST printed $231.70/MWh before partially retreating. The overnight period told a very different story: prices ran negative from roughly 09:30 AEST through to 14:15 AEST (UTC overnight), bottoming near -$8.80/MWh as demand troughed below 4,300 MW and thermal commitment exceeded minimum load requirements.

The generation mix at the latest data point (06:10 AEST) is dominated by black coal at 2,797 MW, with hydro contributing 85.91 MW and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.16 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration is just 3.11% at the latest carbon intensity reading, reflecting the absence of solar at this hour and limited wind data in the mix. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8526 tCO2/MWh — the highest recorded across today's carbon history, which peaked at 0.8529 tCO2/MWh during the midday solar trough period and has remained anchored near that level since approximately 22:30 AEST. The contrast with the 08:30 AEST reading of 0.6627 tCO2/MWh (when renewable penetration reached 24.69%) illustrates the pronounced intraday swing driven almost entirely by rooftop and utility solar availability.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are converging around $154/MWh from the most recent run, down from earlier runs that ranged as high as $243/MWh for the same interval. The 07:30 AEST target is forecast at approximately $80–$102/MWh across recent runs, indicating the market expects price to ease as the morning peak demand passes and solar generation begins to emerge. Load window data supports this trajectory, with prices in the $33–$51/MWh range anticipated from 08:00 AEST onward and sub-zero periods again expected in the solar window around 09:00–10:00 AEST (00:00–01:00 UTC), consistent with the pattern observed today.

Two active market notices are directly relevant to Queensland. AEMO declared unit MUCRKSF1 non-conforming in QLD1 for the interval 21:10–21:15 AEST (11:10–11:15 UTC) at 117 MW under constraint NC-Q_MUCRKSF1, and unit BARRON-1 non-conforming for 13:05–13:10 AEST at -29 MW under NC-Q_BARRON-1. Neither notice indicates ongoing real-time impact at this hour, but the Barron Gorge deviation is worth monitoring given hydro's role as a flexible peaking resource in the region. The MT PASA reserve notice published this morning confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified for QLD in the medium term. An inter-regional transfer limit variation affecting the Larcom Creek–Calliope River