NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are sitting in a moderate range this morning, with NSW1 the highest at $187.70/MWh against total demand of 7,203 MW. QLD1 follows at $180.80/MWh (6,298 MW), with VIC1 at $161.84/MWh and SA1 at $160.98/MWh running close together. TAS1 is the clear outlier at $132.34/MWh, reflecting its largely hydro-based generation profile. The $55/MWh spread between NSW1 and TAS1 is partially explained by interconnector flows: Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is running at its import limit of 153.58 MW into Victoria, and VIC1-NSW1 is carrying 717.46 MW northward. The grid stress score sits at 80.2/100, warranting attention through today's trading periods.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 18.1%, well below midday peaks typical of this season given data is captured in the early evening window after solar has dropped to near zero across all regions. The generation mix reflects this: NSW1 is dominated by black coal at 5,572 MW with hydro contributing a notable 1,037 MW, QLD1 runs 2,797 MW of black coal with virtually no renewables active, and VIC1 sits at 2,204 MW brown coal supplemented by 110 MW gas OCGT. SA1 is the standout for wind output at 315 MW, supplying 34.28% renewable penetration and a carbon intensity of 0.322 tCO2/MWh — the lowest on the mainland. Tasmania records 100% renewable penetration (577 MW hydro, 34 MW wind) and zero carbon intensity. The V-SA interconnector is running at its import limit of 196.39 MW into South Australia, indicating the region is drawing from Victoria to supplement local supply.

SA1 carries the most significant operational history entering today. AEMO issued a direction to a participant on 6 April for voltage management, and a foreseeable intervention notice had been raised for 7 April — subsequently cancelled after sufficient market response. A forecast LOR1 condition was also declared for SA on the evening of 7 April (1830–2300 hrs) and has since been superseded. Traders should note SA1's voltage management requirements have been active across multiple consecutive days; with the V-SA interconnector at its import limit and local gas capacity available but currently offline (0 MW OCGT), any further deterioration in inertia or voltage support this evening warrants close monitoring. The MT PASA reserve notice published this morning identifies no low reserve conditions NEM-wide for the outlook period.

Two non-conformance events for ORABESS1 in NSW1 (51 MW battery, intervals around 14:30–16:05 AEST on 7 April) are active, along with a brief non-conformance for MUCRKSF1 in QLD1 (117 MW, 11:10–11:15 AEST). Neither appears to be driving material price impacts at current levels, and the 15:15 price review from 7 April has been confirmed unchanged. DWGM planned maintenance is scheduled for 14–15 April, with a two-hour production outage on the evening of 14 April — gas market participants operating in Victoria should factor this into scheduling for that period.