commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $161.84/MWh with demand at 5,182 MW and climbing — up from a trough of roughly 4,048 MW in the early hours of this morning. The price-demand relationship through today has been stark: prices held negative or near zero from around midnight through to 06:30 AEST as demand sat in the 4,100–4,800 MW range, then accelerated sharply once demand crossed 5,500 MW during the morning peak, reaching $206.28/MWh at 06:10 AEST when demand touched 4,944 MW on the way up. The sustained $120–$142/MWh band that held through the business hours of 07:00–19:00 AEST reflects the grid operating with limited headroom at 5,300–6,100 MW — a demand level that requires peaking capacity to clear. The generation mix as of 06:10 AEST shows brown coal at 2,204 MW, gas OCGT at 109.86 MW, and wind at only 96.97 MW, with solar contributing zero at that hour, illustrating that the marginal dispatch burden falls on thermal capacity as demand builds.

The current trajectory is upward: demand has risen from 4,816 MW at 06:00 AEST to 5,182 MW at 06:35 AEST, a gain of 366 MW in 35 minutes. Forecast pricing for 07:00 AEST (the 21:00 UTC target interval) sits at approximately $156/MWh, down slightly from the current print but consistent with sustained elevated demand during the morning ramp. Earlier in the session, forecasts for this same interval ranged as high as $236.69/MWh, which indicates the market has partially relaxed its price outlook as dispatched capacity has kept pace with load. The 21:30 AEST forecast at $123.38/MWh suggests the market expects some easing as demand likely plateaus or begins its mid-morning decline — consistent with the pattern observed on the previous evening where demand rolled off from the 6,096 MW peak toward 4,600 MW through the afternoon.

Grid stress is elevated, with a score of 78.9/100, and carbon intensity is currently 1.1205 tCO2/MWh with renewables contributing only 6.05% — the daytime solar ramp has not yet taken hold at this hour. Load-shifting windows for flexible demand are concentrated in the 08:30–11:30 AEST period (UTC 22:30–01:30), where forecast prices fall to the $9–$25/MWh range, representing the overnight trough period that is now passing. The key watch point for the remainder of the morning is whether demand continues its current ramp above 5,200 MW — any sustained move toward the 5,700–6,100 MW levels seen at the morning peak risks re-engaging higher-cost peaking plant and pushing prices back toward the $130–$160/MWh range or above if supply margins tighten.