NEM Overview

Tasmania leads spot prices at $96.18/MWh with demand of 956 MW, while NSW ($86.47/MWh, 7,147 MW) and Queensland ($85.83/MWh, 6,251 MW) sit close together in the mid-80s. South Australia prices at $45.10/MWh and Victoria stands out with a near-floor price of $11/MWh — a 85-dollar spread against Tasmania that reflects strong wind output (761 MW) suppressing Victoria's wholesale price despite brown coal running at 1,854 MW. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is flowing at its export limit of 786 MW and is binding, with Victoria exporting surplus to NSW. The Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is currently at zero flow, which is notable given Tasmania's elevated price relative to Victoria.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 21.8% per the current scores, with significant variation by region. Tasmania is 100% renewable at this interval — 335 MW hydro and 117 MW wind. SA is at 83.0% renewable (0.08 tCO2/MWh) with 254 MW of wind and negligible gas. Victoria's 34.9% renewable share is driven by wind; QLD and NSW are well below 5% renewable this interval with solar effectively offline, reflecting the early-morning profile. Grid stress scores at 78.7/100, and carbon intensity in NSW (0.84 tCO2/MWh) and QLD (0.85 tCO2/MWh) reflect near-exclusive reliance on black coal at this hour. Price stability is low at 29.1, consistent with the wide inter-regional spread.

South Australia carries the most notable operational risk today. AEMO's foreseeable intervention notice for voltage in SA — flagging a potential direction from 1130 hrs AEST — remains active, and the earlier LOR1 forecast for 1830–2300 hrs (reserve shortfall of 113 MW against a 473 MW requirement) has not been formally cancelled in the data provided. A direction was issued in SA on 6 April; traders should treat the SA evening period as elevated-risk for out-of-market actions and potential intervention pricing implications. The Barron Gorge unit 1 (BARRON-1) non-conformance in QLD at 0305–0310 hrs this morning was minor at -29 MW and is the only QLD notice of operational significance today.

Watch the VIC1-NSW1 binding constraint through the morning — as solar generation builds in NSW from around 0700 hrs, the price differential between Victoria and NSW is likely to compress. SA's voltage management requirement from 1130 hrs is the key operational trigger to monitor; if AEMO does not receive sufficient market response by 0900 hrs, a direction is expected. The Basslink zero-flow position bears watching given the Tasmania-Victoria price gap; any resumption of southward flows would put downward pressure on Tasmanian prices.