commodity demand vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $11/MWh with demand at 4,690 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a low-price, rising-demand configuration that marks the transition out of the overnight trough. The price-demand relationship across today's cycle has been stark: demand bottomed near 3,330–3,570 MW between 14:30–15:30 AEST, coinciding with sustained negative prices as low as -$19.99/MWh, while the morning peak — demand reached 5,607 MW at 18:40 AEST — drove prices into the $60–$86/MWh range, with a single interval spiking to $86.29/MWh. That morning ramp from roughly 4,100 MW at 16:00 AEST to above 5,500 MW in under two hours produced the sharpest price sensitivity of the day, with each 100 MW of incremental demand broadly correlating with $3–$6/MWh of price movement once the stack tightened above 5,000 MW.
Demand is now climbing again from its afternoon low, tracking back toward the evening peak window. The generation mix at 06:20 AEST shows brown coal at 1,854 MW, wind at 761 MW, and gas OCGT at 109 MW, with solar off-line — consistent with the overnight-to-early-morning configuration. Carbon intensity stands at 0.7713 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 34.91%, improved from the morning peak period when intensity reached 0.9568 tCO2/MWh and renewables fell to under 20% as wind output was insufficient to offset the demand surge.
The forecast price signal for the 07:00–08:00 AEST trading window (target times 21:00–21:30 UTC) clusters around $11–$35/MWh across multiple forecast runs, with the most recent runs settling firmly at $11/MWh. This implies the market does not anticipate a sharp evening ramp comparable to this morning's, though forecasts issued mid-session ran as high as $100/MWh for the 22:00 UTC (08:00 AEST) interval before pulling back — indicating meaningful uncertainty around whether demand growth through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window will pressure the stack. Demand currently sits roughly 900 MW below today's observed peak, and any acceleration in the evening ramp rate — particularly if wind output softens — will be the key variable determining whether prices re-enter the $45–$75/MWh range seen this morning.
No market notices directly affect Victoria's dispatch today. The active SA intervention event and the earlier LOR1 in SA are the system's primary operational concerns, and while SA security conditions can influence VIC-SA interconnector flows and indirectly affect Victorian marginal pricing, no Victorian-specific constraint or direction is currently in force.