Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 5 April 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $59.14/MWh at 06:30 AEST, pulling back from a sustained band of $71–$80/MWh that held through most of the business day. Total demand is 5,654 MW. The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 2,299 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW and gas OCGT a negligible 0.16 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the post-sunset interval. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.61% — a sharp contraction from the overnight low-demand window where renewables reached 24% as coal backed off. The 24-hour price profile traced a classic weekday shape: negative prices through the early hours (touching -$102/MWh at 11:20 AEST), a rapid ramp through the morning peak to $80/MWh by 08:45 AEST, a sustained mid-day plateau near $72/MWh, and a gradual softening into the evening.

Carbon intensity is 0.8482 tCO2/MWh — near its day-high, reflecting the current coal-heavy dispatch with minimal renewable contribution. This contrasts with the overnight period where intensity fell to a day-low of 0.6682 tCO2/MWh at 13:00 AEST when hydro and wind were more prominent in the mix. The intensity figure has been largely flat since 07:30 AEST, tracking consistently between 0.848 and 0.852 tCO2/MWh as daytime demand kept coal units at sustained output levels.

Predispatch forecasts point to continued softening overnight. The 07:00 AEST target interval carries a forecast of $55.75/MWh from the most recent predispatch run, down from $62.95/MWh forecast earlier in the day for that same interval. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at approximately $33–$48/MWh across recent predispatch runs, with load window data indicating negative prices are expected to return from around 08:00 AEST through to approximately 15:00 AEST — consistent with overnight low-demand and minimum system load conditions. Flexible load operators should note the extended negative-price window flagged in load optimisation data, with indicative prices ranging from -$3/MWh to -$25/MWh across the 08:00–13:30 AEST window.

The most operationally significant active notice for Queensland participants is Market Notice 140921, which flagged an unplanned outage of the Larcom Creek–Calliope River 8859 275kV line at 02:40 AEST, invoking constraint set Q-LCCP_8859 on the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector. This constraint remains active and is relevant to any participant exposed to inter-regional flow on the Queensland–New South Wales boundary. Separately, two active Market Intervention notices (140937 and 140938) relate to a foreseeable AEMO intervention in the SA region for voltage management from 19:30 AEST today — these do not directly affect Queensland dispatch but may influence interconnector flows and NEM-wide system conditions. Queensland traders should also note that prices for several intervals around 11:00 AEST were subject to manifestly incorrect inputs review; the 11:00 AEST interval has since been confirmed unchanged.