NEM Overview

Spot prices at 06:30 AEST are settled across a wide band — Tasmania sits highest at $90.16/MWh against a NEM-wide total demand of roughly 18,160 MW, with NSW the largest contributor at 6,224 MW at $65.01/MWh and QLD close behind at 5,654 MW at $59.14/MWh. Victoria clears at $46.80/MWh and SA at $49.04/MWh, both softer despite the evening demand window. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is flowing 1,081 MW northward and is binding at its export limit, explaining the $18/MWh price wedge between those two regions. QLD is exporting 551 MW south via NSW1-QLD1. Tasmania's Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) sits at zero flow, isolating it from mainland pricing and contributing to its elevated price. WA's most recent available price is $109.84/MWh, though that data is from an earlier interval and sits outside the NEM dispatch framework.

NEM-wide renewable penetration registers at 17.6% on the gridIQ score. The picture varies sharply by region: SA reaches 90.25% renewable with 382 MW of wind and 41 MW of gas CCGT serving 1,223 MW of demand, while Tasmania runs at 100% renewable on 390 MW hydro and 128 MW of wind. By contrast, QLD's renewable share sits at just 3.57% this interval — 2,328 MW of black coal covers the bulk of 5,654 MW demand with solar offline overnight — and NSW renewable penetration is 6.91% with 4,282 MW of black coal online. Victoria is generating 733 MW of wind alongside 1,977 MW of brown coal and 108 MW of gas OCGT, landing at 26% renewable. Carbon intensity ranges from 0 tCO2/MWh in Tasmania to 0.88 tCO2/MWh in Victoria, with NSW at 0.82 and QLD at 0.85.

The critical market notice for today is an active AEMO foreseeable intervention in SA from 09:30 AEST, with AEMO flagging it will issue a direction if sufficient market response is not forthcoming by 07:30 AEST. The trigger is voltage — the same issue that resulted in directions to Barker Inlet PS and Quarantine PS Unit 5 yesterday, both of which were subsequently cancelled. Participants with SA exposure should monitor AEMO market notices closely ahead of the 07:30 response deadline. A separate constraint set (Q-LCCP_8859) remains active on the QLD-NSW interconnector following an unplanned outage of the Larcom Creek–Calliope River 275 kV line, which is limiting northward transfer capacity on that corridor. Grid stress is scored at 74.1/100, reflecting these active constraints and the binding interconnector positions. Overall market conditions score sits at 47.2/100 and price stability at 46.5/100, consistent with a market carrying meaningful operational risk into the morning.