commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $46.8/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 4,139 MW — a marked softening from the sustained $65–$91/MWh range that prevailed through the afternoon and early evening peak. Today's demand profile followed a classic autumn shape: a deep overnight trough bottoming near 2,250 MW around 12:30–13:30 AEST, accompanied by sustained negative pricing that reached as low as -$60/MWh, before a sharp morning ramp drove demand through 5,300 MW by 18:30 AEST and held prices firmly in the $70–$81/MWh band for most of the business day. The late-afternoon/early-evening period saw prices spike into the high $80s and briefly touch $91/MWh between 16:00–16:05 AEST as demand pulled back slightly from its morning peak but supply margins tightened — a pattern consistent with autumn solar output declining earlier in the day and dispatchable capacity being priced more aggressively.

The demand-price relationship today has been notably tight in the $4,000–5,300 MW range, with every sustained move above 4,800 MW anchoring prices above $70/MWh. The current 4,139 MW level sits in a transitional zone: low enough that dispatchable plant is backing off marginal cost bids, but demand is climbing again from the 3,850–3,960 MW seen between 18:00–19:45 AEST. The generation mix at this interval shows brown coal contributing 1,953 MW, wind 809 MW, and gas OCGT 111 MW, with solar at zero given the overnight hour. Carbon intensity stands at 0.8544 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 28.19% — improved from the 1.02–1.03 tCO2/MWh readings during the high-demand morning window when wind contribution was weaker.

Forward forecasts for the next trading half-hours point to prices stepping down from the current ~$47/MWh toward the $32–$36/MWh range by 07:30 AEST as the overnight trough deepens and demand falls. The load window data confirms this trajectory, with negative pricing expected to return from around 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) through to pre-dawn, consistent with the pattern observed last night. The critical demand watch for today is the morning ramp: if today's weekday pattern mirrors the weekend shape, demand will push back through 4,500 MW by around 16:00–17:00 AEST and could revisit the $70–$80/MWh range. Traders should note the active AEMO market notice flagging a foreseeable intervention event in SA from 09:30 AEST today due to voltage requirements — while directly affecting SA, any directions-driven dispatch changes could influence Victorian interconnector flows and distort VIC1 price formation during the morning ramp.