NEM Overview

Spot prices are split firmly across the NEM at 06:25 AEST. Tasmania leads at $74.56/MWh on 1,045 MW of demand met almost entirely by hydro (544 MW) and wind (64 MW), giving it 100% renewable penetration and 0 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity. NSW sits at $57.97/MWh with 6,701 MW of demand, where black coal is carrying 4,191 MW and wind and solar contribute a combined 333 MW — just 7.4% renewable penetration and 0.82 tCO2/MWh, the highest intensity on the NEM. Queensland prints $56.71/MWh on 5,665 MW, with black coal at 2,291 MW and renewables at 3.6%. The standout is Victoria and South Australia, both sitting at effectively zero — VIC at -$0.10/MWh and SA at -$0.09/MWh — driven by 1,124 MW of Victorian wind and 789 MW of South Australian wind overwhelming subdued overnight demand. SA's renewable penetration is 95% at 0.02 tCO2/MWh.

The interconnector picture explains the price divergence. VIC1-NSW1 is running at its export limit of 947 MW and is binding, meaning Victoria cannot push any more surplus southward-generated wind north to NSW — that constraint is keeping NSW prices elevated relative to Victoria's near-zero level. V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) is also binding at -150 MW, restricting SA-to-VIC flow. The NSW1-QLD1 interconnector shows 85 MW flowing south from Queensland into NSW, also at its import limit. Tasmania is exporting 72 MW to Victoria via Basslink (T-V-MNSP1).

AEMO has been active on market notices overnight. Six trading intervals between 05:25 and 06:10 AEST remain under review for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs under NER clause 3.9.2B, with the 05:50 interval now confirmed unchanged. Traders should note these reviews are still open for the 05:25–06:10 window — final prices for those intervals are not yet settled. Additionally, a negative settlement residues constraint on the NSW-to-VIC interconnector (NRM_NSW1_VIC1) was cancelled at 15:00 AEST on 3 April, indicating AEMO ceased action to limit negative residue accumulation on that directional flow.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 25% with a grid stress score of 66.2 — elevated for a Saturday morning, consistent with the binding interconnector constraints compressing dispatch options. As solar generation ramps through the morning, expect further downward pressure on SA and VIC prices, while NSW and QLD will depend on whether interconnector limits ease to arbitrage the spread. Carbon intensity score of 49.1 reflects the two-speed grid: near-zero intensity in SA, VIC, and TAS alongside coal-dominated dispatch in NSW and QLD.