commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $0/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 4,456 MW — a level that has kept the market in near-zero or negative price territory for most of the past 18 hours. The pattern across today's data is clear: demand below roughly 4,100 MW consistently produces negative prices (reaching as low as -$50.01/MWh in the overnight trough near 2,900 MW), while demand climbing above 4,600–4,800 MW during the morning ramp pushed prices into the $8–$22/MWh range around 07:30–09:00 AEST. The morning peak of 5,169 MW at 08:35 AEST corresponded with prices holding at $10.22–$10.34/MWh — a relatively muted response, indicating ample supply headroom even at daily demand peaks. Demand has since eased through the midday and afternoon period, pulling prices back to near zero.

The demand trajectory from here is the key price driver for the remainder of Saturday. The forecast sequence for the 07:00 AEST target interval (21:00 UTC) has converged firmly to $0/MWh across the last several AEMO pre-dispatch runs, down from $33/MWh in early morning pre-dispatch. That convergence reflects the market pricing in lower Saturday evening demand — typical for a weekend, where residential and commercial load falls well short of weekday levels. The current generation mix of 1,264 MW brown coal, 1,074 MW wind, and 111 MW gas OCGT at 4,456 MW demand illustrates the structural surplus condition: with solar at zero (post-sunset), supply is still comfortably meeting load.

AEMO has issued a series of market notices today flagging prices subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across multiple intervals in the early morning hours (roughly 05:15–06:10 AEST), with the 05:50 interval subsequently confirmed unchanged. Traders should note that several intervals in this window remain under active review — confirmed prices are not yet final for those periods, which carries settlement risk for positions marked to those intervals. A separate settlements residue notice confirmed the NRM_NSW1_VIC1 negative residue constraint ceased operation at 15:00 AEST, removing an interstate flow restriction that had been active during the deep negative price periods earlier in the day.

The outlook for the balance of Saturday is for prices to remain in the low single digits to mildly negative range, consistent with weekend demand unlikely to breach 4,800 MW absent a weather event. Carbon intensity sits at 0.659 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 43.88% — the higher renewable share versus overnight levels (which dipped below 26%) reflects the current wind output sustaining 1,074 MW into the evening hours. Any material wind drop or unexpected demand spike toward 5,000 MW could push prices into the $10–$20/MWh band briefly, but the pre-dispatch signal gives no indication of that scenario materialising today.