regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $56.40/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a significant step down from the morning peak that pushed above $105/MWh around 07:00 AEST and sustained prices in the high $80s–$90s through the 08:00–09:00 AEST window. Total demand stands at 5,712 MW, well below this morning's peak of approximately 7,900 MW. The 24-hour price trajectory shows a clear pattern: overnight lows in the $12–$23/MWh range, a sharp morning ramp beginning around 05:00 AEST, a sustained period of $85–$105/MWh pricing through the morning peak, and a progressive softening through the afternoon and early evening back toward current levels.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 2,452 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW, solar at 5 MW, and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.16 MW. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.6%, consistent with the pattern seen across most of the daylight and evening hours today — the carbon history shows renewables peaked at 27.7% during the overnight period (around 10:00 AEST UTC+10, when wind output would have been strongest relative to lower overnight coal dispatch) before falling sharply as morning demand ramped and coal-fired capacity increased. Carbon intensity is currently 0.8483 tCO2/MWh, elevated compared to the 0.64–0.68 tCO2/MWh range recorded overnight.

Predispatch forecasts point to a material price decline through the balance of the evening. The 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval is forecast at $52.75/MWh, stepping down to $29.23/MWh by 07:30 AEST. Earlier in the day, predispatch was signalling $71–$86/MWh for this same 07:00 AEST interval, with forecasts progressively revised lower as actual prices softened and demand fell away — illustrating how significantly the evening settled below earlier predispatch expectations. Load window data confirms deep negative pricing is anticipated in the early morning hours of 13:00–14:30 AEST (03:00–04:30 UTC), with some intervals forecast as low as −$25/MWh, consistent with solar generation surpluses expected during the mid-morning period on what appears to be a clear-sky day.

AEMO has issued an extensive series of active "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, covering intervals from 04:30 AEST through to 16:30 AEST today. Multiple earlier intervals — including 02:00, 02:55, 03:15, and 03:40 AEST — have already been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. The volume of review notices across the morning solar generation window is notable; traders should treat confirmed settlement prices for the reviewed intervals as final where notices are marked resolved, but treat outstanding reviews across the 04:30–16:30 AEST block as subject to potential revision until AEMO closes each event.