NEM Overview

Spot prices are sharply divergent across the NEM at 06:25 AEST. Tasmania leads at $83.39/MWh on demand of 926 MW, with NSW close behind at $71.09/MWh (6,704 MW) and QLD at $62.95/MWh (5,765 MW). Victoria and SA are sitting near the floor at $8.95/MWh and $8.70/MWh respectively — a spread of over $74/MWh between the cheapest and most expensive regions. That gap is being bridged by interconnector flows: VIC1-NSW1 is exporting 1,050 MW northward at its binding export limit, and NSW1-QLD1 is flowing 596 MW southward at its binding import limit, meaning both interconnectors are constrained. The V-S-MNSP1 link between Victoria and SA is also binding at -156 MW, limiting how much of Victoria's surplus can reach South Australia.

Victoria's low price reflects 906 MW of wind alongside 1,690 MW of brown coal and near-zero solar at this early hour, with the binding export constraint preventing that surplus from fully clearing into NSW. SA's $8.70/MWh price is supported by 689 MW of wind covering the bulk of its 1,251 MW load — carbon intensity there sits at just 0.03 tCO₂/MWh with renewable penetration at 94%. Tasmania is 100% renewable (239 MW wind, 212 MW hydro) but its price premium reflects the Basslink flow of 87 MW moving toward Victoria rather than providing relief northward. NEM-wide renewable penetration stands at 18.7% on the gridIQ score, with grid stress elevated at 61.8 — consistent with the multiple binding interconnector constraints currently active.

The dominant market notice issue this morning is a sustained series of AEMO reviews under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering every trading interval from 04:35 through to 06:25 AEST, all of which remain active and unresolved. Two earlier intervals — 03:15 and 03:40 — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, but the unresolved run of notices covering the pre-dawn window is unusually long. Traders with exposure to those intervals should treat current published prices as provisional. As solar generation begins ramping through the morning, expect downward price pressure in NSW and QLD, though the binding NSW1-QLD1 import limit will constrain how quickly that relief translates north. Watch the VIC1-NSW1 constraint for any easing as demand shapes shift post-sunrise.