commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $8.95/MWh with demand at 4,266 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a stark contrast to the evening peak that drove demand to nearly 6,050 MW and prices above $200/MWh around 07:45 AEST yesterday. That 1,800 MW swing illustrates precisely how sensitive Victorian pricing is to demand level: once demand cleared 5,800 MW yesterday, prices consistently printed in the $120–$237/MWh range across the entire peak window. Below roughly 4,500 MW, pricing has largely hugged the floor, with frequent negative and near-zero prints through the overnight trough — demand bottomed around 3,006 MW just after 12:55 AEST, coinciding with a sustained run of sub-zero prices as generation outpaced consumption.

The forecast price signal for today's evening peak (07:00 AEST) points to approximately $11/MWh, dramatically softer than yesterday's equivalent period. The most recent forecasts issued from 00:01 AEST onward have progressively revised that target interval down — from $75/MWh in the early morning to $8.95–$11/MWh by 06:30 AEST. This suggests the market anticipates either meaningfully lower demand tonight than yesterday, or a more relaxed supply stack. Given today is a Friday, commercial and industrial load should begin stepping down through the afternoon, which is consistent with the subdued forecast.

The overnight negative-price period is tracking to repeat tonight. Load window data points to negative prices across the 08:30–11:00 AEST window (tonight into early Saturday morning), with the most negative prints projected around the 09:00–10:00 AEST band — some load window estimates reaching as low as −$56/MWh. Wind is currently generating 885 MW and solar has not yet come online at 06:30 AEST; as solar output lifts through the morning, pricing pressure on the downside will build across the midday trough. Flexible loads and battery operators should note that this afternoon's softer demand trajectory, combined with Friday's lower industrial baseline, narrows the probability of a repeat of yesterday's sustained high-price peak.

Traders should be aware that AEMO has issued a significant volume of Manifestly Incorrect Input reviews under clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from approximately 04:00 through 06:30 AEST this morning. Two earlier intervals (02:00 AEST and 03:15 AEST) were reviewed and prices confirmed unchanged, but the active review notices across more than 15 subsequent intervals mean that settlement prices for these periods remain provisional and are subject to revision. Risk positions over this window should account for that uncertainty until AEMO issues confirmation notices.