Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 1 April 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $104.61/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, at the elevated end of the evening ramp that began around 03:10 AEST when prices lifted from the low-to-mid $50s/MWh range. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear trough in the overnight period — prices touched $0/MWh in several intervals between 10:50 AEST and 11:00 AEST — before climbing sharply through the afternoon peak, with sustained readings above $90/MWh from 03:10 AEST onwards. Total demand sits at 6,525 MW, well off the intraday peak of approximately 8,160 MW recorded around 18:35 AEST, consistent with typical post-business-hours load decay.
The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 2,473.64 MW, with hydro contributing 86.12 MW, solar at 2.5 MW, and gas OCGT at 0.16 MW. With solar output negligible at this hour, renewable penetration is 3.46% and carbon intensity is 0.8496 tCO2/MWh — broadly in line with readings sustained throughout the business day, which have hovered between 0.845 and 0.856 tCO2/MWh since approximately 08:00 AEST. The overnight period showed materially lower intensity (down to 0.676 tCO2/MWh around 23:30–00:30 AEST) as overnight load reduced thermal output requirements.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading interval point to $92.73/MWh, indicating a modest price pullback from current levels but conditions remaining firm. Earlier predispatch runs through the afternoon had the same interval pegged at $88.88–$95.82/MWh, with the most recent run settling at $92.73/MWh — suggesting the market is converging on a moderate step-down as the evening peak unwinds. Load shifting windows point to the 08:00–09:00 AEST bracket (UTC 22:00–23:00) offering prices in the $35–$52/MWh range, with the deepest troughs in the $12–$24/MWh range expected around 08:30–09:00 AEST as overnight demand softens.
Traders should note a substantial volume of active AEMO market notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from 03:35 AEST through to 16:30 AEST today — spanning roughly 13 hours of trading intervals that remain subject to price review. One interval (03:35 AEST) has been confirmed with prices unchanged, and one earlier interval (05:15 AEST) was similarly confirmed unchanged. The breadth of unresolved review notices is unusually wide and warrants close attention for participants with settlement exposure across those intervals, as final prices for this morning's pre-dawn and early morning periods remain subject to revision.