NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are running in a narrow band this morning, with NSW1 leading at $191.08/MWh, VIC1 at $179.92/MWh, and SA1 at $175.22/MWh as of the 06:30 AEST interval. Queensland sits considerably lower at $104.61/MWh and Tasmania at $128.04/MWh. The NSW–QLD spread of roughly $86/MWh is the standout divergence, and the NSW1–QLD1 interconnector is binding at its import limit of 690 MW flowing south into NSW — Queensland's surplus is not clearing the price gap. Grid stress scores at 71.2 out of 100, reflecting the constrained interconnector conditions and elevated southern prices in what is otherwise a moderate-demand autumn morning.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at just 16.1%, consistent with overnight and early-morning conditions across all regions. Solar output is effectively zero across every region — it is pre-dawn, overcast conditions prevail in NSW (100% cloud cover), SA (89%), and VIC (62%), and solar potential is rated at zero across the board. Wind contribution is minimal: NSW has 48 MW, SA 173 MW, VIC 18 MW, and TAS 21 MW. Tasmania is the sole region running at 100% renewable penetration, with 524 MW of hydro and 21 MW of wind covering its 1,183 MW demand and exporting 211 MW north to Victoria via Basslink. Carbon intensity reflects this mix — VIC1 is the highest at 1.09 tCO2/MWh on the back of 2,088 MW of brown coal and 384 MW of gas OCGT, while SA1 sits at 0.43 tCO2/MWh with wind covering roughly 20% of its 1,428 MW load alongside gas.

The most significant operational issue this morning is a sustained run of AEMO market notices flagging prices subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for every trading interval from 03:35 through to 06:30 AEST. That is over three hours of consecutive intervals under active review, with only the 03:35 and 05:15 intervals so far confirmed unchanged. Traders should treat all prices from 04:00 onward as provisional until AEMO completes its review and issues confirmations. Price stability scores at 46.1 are consistent with this uncertainty.

The outlook for the remainder of the morning is for prices to ease as solar generation comes online mid-morning, though cloud cover across NSW and SA will limit the magnitude of that effect today. The NSW–QLD spread is worth watching — if the binding interconnector constraint persists into peak demand hours, NSW prices have room to move further above Queensland. Heating demand is low across the mainland but elevated in Tasmania at a heating demand index of 7.2, which supports continued strong hydro dispatch and Basslink exports north.