commodity demand vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $179.92/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,918 MW — the evening peak is firmly in progress. The price trajectory through this peak has been sharp: demand climbed from a daytime trough of around 4,380 MW (mid-afternoon) to current levels over roughly four hours, with prices accelerating in lockstep. The most acute sensitivity appeared between 20:20 and 20:25 AEST, when demand crossed 5,800 MW and prices briefly spiked to $216.39/MWh before settling back to the current print. This evening ramp is consistent with autumn demand patterns — cooling demand is minimal at 14.1°C, but heating demand reads 3.9, suggesting residential heating load is driving the build.
The day's demand curve tells a clear story of two distinct price regimes. Overnight (roughly 11:30 AEST to 07:00 AEST) demand sat in the 4,000–4,300 MW band and prices were near or below $0/MWh across multiple intervals, with spot touching -$0.10/MWh. The morning ramp from 12:10 AEST lifted demand through 5,000 MW and pushed prices decisively into the $90–$130/MWh range, where they held for the entire business day. That mid-day floor around $97–$100.50/MWh was notably sticky, suggesting a generator bid stack anchored at those levels across the 5,000–5,800 MW demand range.
The latest AEMO forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval prices at $170.29/MWh, down from the current $179.92/MWh, consistent with demand easing as the evening peak rolls off. The overnight trajectory points to a return toward the $35–$60/MWh range as demand retreats toward 4,000–4,500 MW — load window data confirms forecast prices in that band from 08:00 AEST onward. Traders should note that AEMO has issued an extensive series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 03:45 through to 06:30 AEST today, citing possible manifestly incorrect inputs. One reviewed interval (03:35 AEST) was confirmed unchanged; the remainder are still active. Any retrospective price revision across that block could materially affect settlement exposure for participants with positions in the early-morning high-price window.