regional qld — QLD1
The Queensland spot price sits at $66.30/MWh against a total demand of 6,552 MW as of 06:35 AEST. Tracing the past 24 hours, prices dipped sharply into single digits between roughly 07:15–09:00 AEST overnight before climbing through the morning peak to a session high of $77.06/MWh at 06:10 AEST, then easing back to current levels. The 24-hour price range has been wide — from $0.73/MWh to $77.06/MWh — reflecting the characteristic overnight trough and morning ramp pattern. Demand peaked near 7,945 MW around 18:00 AEST before retreating to current levels as the morning progresses.
The generation mix is heavily weighted toward black coal at 2,826.76 MW, with hydro contributing 85.92 MW, solar at 4.4 MW, and gas OCGT at just 0.16 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 3.1% — the carbon history shows this figure was considerably higher overnight (peaking near 23.7% around 09:15–10:00 AEST on the overnight period) when solar was absent and wind/hydro carried a larger share of a lower demand base, but has compressed sharply through the daytime hours as demand has grown and the mix has become coal-dominated. Carbon intensity currently registers 0.8527 tCO2/MWh, near the top of today's observed range; the overnight low reached 0.6763 tCO2/MWh.
Predispatch forecasts point to a material price lift over the next trading hour, with the 07:00 AEST interval targeted at $75.83/MWh across the most recent forecast runs — down from earlier predispatch estimates that were running as high as $84.46/MWh earlier this morning, suggesting some softening in the near-term outlook but still a clear step up from the current $66.30/MWh. Load window data indicates prices drop sharply from 08:30 AEST (target $39.71/MWh) and further into negative territory around 09:00 AEST (as low as -$3.40/MWh), consistent with solar generation entering the market in volume.
Traders and dispatch engineers should note an extensive series of active AEMO market notices flagging prices from 02:45 through 06:30 AEST as subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), with the sole resolved notice — the 04:45 AEST interval — confirmed unchanged. All other flagged intervals across the early morning remain under active review. Positions referencing settlement prices for those intervals carry revision risk until AEMO completes its assessment.