NEM Overview

Spot prices are diverging sharply across the NEM at 06:35 AEST. Tasmania leads at $111.93/MWh against a demand of 1,112 MW, while Victoria sits at just $11/MWh despite 5,655 MW of demand — the lowest price on the mainland by a wide margin, driven by 1,121 MW of wind output that accounts for 38% of Victoria's local generation mix. NSW prices at $78.21/MWh and Queensland at $66.30/MWh sit in the mid-range, with SA clearing at $41.94/MWh. The VIC–NSW interconnector is flowing 696 MW northward into NSW and is binding at its export limit, which explains a significant portion of the NSW–VIC spread. Queensland is simultaneously exporting 719 MW to NSW via the QNI interconnector, also binding at its import limit, leaving NSW drawing from both directions to meet its 8,066 MW load.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 23.4% per the current scores. SA is the standout at 60% renewable, with 180 MW of wind and no solar output (it is pre-dawn, full cloud cover across SA, VIC, and TAS). Tasmania is at 100% renewable on 297 MW of hydro and 52 MW of wind. Victoria's 37.8% renewable share reflects strong wind performance. NSW and Queensland are at 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, with both regions running predominantly on black coal — NSW at 5,426 MW and Queensland at 2,827 MW. Grid stress scores 65.8 out of 100, consistent with the binding interconnector constraints observed on both QNI and VIC–NSW.

The most significant operational flag this morning is an extensive sequence of active PRICES SUBJECT TO REVIEW notices covering every trading interval from 03:35 through to 06:30 AEST, all triggered under NER Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. That is nearly three hours of consecutive intervals under review, with no confirmed resolution notices issued beyond the 04:45 interval (which was confirmed unchanged at 05:05). Traders should treat all published prices for the early-morning window as provisional until AEMO completes its review process. The price stability score of 30.9 reflects this uncertainty directly.

As sunrise approaches, solar potential registers zero across all regions due to the early hour and heavy cloud cover in VIC, SA, and TAS. Wind conditions are most favourable in Victoria at 15.6 km/h with full cloud, consistent with the current output levels. Demand will build through the morning peak with mild temperatures across the board — NSW at 13.7°C is the coolest region and carries a minor heating demand signal. Interconnector flows are likely to remain constrained as the morning ramp progresses, and resolution of the outstanding price review notices will be the key administrative watch point for the trading day.