commodity demand vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $11/MWh with total demand at 5,655 MW as of 07:35 AEST, tracking along the evening ramp that began around 05:00 AEST from a trough of approximately 3,315 MW in the early hours. The demand-price relationship across today's profile has been textbook: prices ran deeply negative — reaching as low as -$32.77/MWh at 13:05 AEST and -$29.67/MWh around 11:45 AEST — through the overnight and midday periods when demand sat between 3,300 MW and 4,800 MW, before recovering to positive territory as the evening demand build took hold from 05:00 AEST onwards.
The sharpest price escalation occurred during the morning peak between 08:00 and 10:00 AEST, when demand surged above 6,000 MW and prices climbed to a session high of $80.83/MWh at 09:20 AEST. That 6,000+ MW demand band is clearly the threshold at which the current dispatch stack tightens — prices were consistently in the $55–$80/MWh range for the full duration demand held above that level. Demand has since eased off that peak and the current 5,655 MW level is holding prices anchored near the $11/MWh floor price, with the generation mix showing 1,835 MW of brown coal, 1,121 MW of wind, and minimal gas dispatch at 9.91 MW OCGT.
The near-term forecast signals $11/MWh for the 08:00 AEST trading period, consistent with current conditions, with later forecast windows pointing to $19–$25/MWh as demand is expected to rebuild through the evening peak. The evening ramp is already underway, with demand climbing 2,340 MW from the overnight floor over the past four hours. Traders should watch the 5,900–6,000 MW threshold closely — that is where today's price data shows the market transitions from low-teens pricing into the $50+/MWh range. Note that AEMO has issued numerous "prices subject to review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for intervals covering approximately 03:40–06:30 AEST today, flagging potential manifestly incorrect inputs; the 04:45 AEST interval has since been confirmed unchanged, but all other flagged intervals remain under active review and published prices for those periods should be treated as provisional.