regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $96.66/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough where prices printed at or below zero for extended periods between roughly 23:00 and 03:00 AEST — a pattern consistent with overnight oversupply. The intraday trajectory has been steep: prices climbed from sub-$5/MWh at 03:30 AEST through the morning ramp, peaking near $80/MWh during the 08:00 AEST business demand surge before easing mid-afternoon, then resuming an upward path through the evening to reach the current level. Total demand sits at 6,554 MW, building from a pre-dawn low of around 4,970 MW.

The generation mix is heavily weighted to black coal, which is contributing 2,939.75 MW — the dominant fuel source in the current dispatch interval. Hydro is providing 86.29 MW, solar 0.6 MW, and gas OCGT a negligible 0.16 MW. Renewable penetration sits at just 2.87% and carbon intensity is 0.8547 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the pattern seen across the full trading day where renewables have not exceeded 3.3% since solar output faded after midday. The carbon intensity floor of around 0.69 tCO2/MWh registered overnight, when lower demand allowed a marginally cleaner dispatch profile, but intensity has been climbing since morning demand ramped.

Predispatch forecasts point to a moderation from current levels, with the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) forecast at $85.83/MWh in the most recent predispatch run — down around $11/MWh from the live price. Earlier predispatch runs issued through the small hours had that same interval pencilled in at $95.73/MWh, suggesting forecasters have revised the outlook slightly softer as supply response comes through. The next few hours are likely to track in the $80–$96/MWh range before overnight demand destruction pushes prices back toward the very low levels observed in the prior overnight window.

Traders and engineers should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices affecting Queensland this morning. AEMO has flagged multiple consecutive intervals between 03:30 and 06:15 AEST as prices subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. The 05:50 AEST interval has since been confirmed unchanged, and the 04:45 and 05:00 AEST intervals have also been confirmed with prices remaining as settled. However, intervals from 05:20 through 06:15 AEST remain under active review. Participants with exposure to those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO issues confirmation notices.