NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM show a clear north-south split this morning, with NSW at $101/MWh, QLD at $96.66/MWh, and TAS at $97.19/MWh sitting well above VIC's $11/MWh and SA's $48.05/MWh. The VIC price is the standout — at $11/MWh it reflects strong wind output of 998 MW driving local supply well ahead of the 5,596 MW demand base. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is exporting 957 MW into NSW at its binding limit, yet the NSW price remains elevated at $101/MWh, pointing to continued tightness on the NSW side of that constraint. The NSW1-QLD1 link is also binding, with 340 MW flowing south into NSW, reinforcing that NSW demand of 8,169 MW is absorbing all available interstate supply. Grid stress sits at 63.6/100, consistent with these binding interconnector conditions.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 17% at this interval, which reflects the pre-dawn timing — solar potential is zero across all regions and all generation mix data confirms negligible solar output. The exceptions are wind and hydro: SA is running at 94% renewable penetration with 711 MW of wind against a 1,574 MW load, TAS is at 100% on 422 MW of hydro and 58 MW of wind, and VIC wind is contributing 33% of that region's mix. NSW and QLD are the lowest at 1.5% and 2.9% respectively, with black coal supplying 5,738 MW in NSW and 2,940 MW in QLD at this hour. Carbon intensity reflects this — NSW is at 0.867 tCO2/MWh, QLD at 0.855 tCO2/MWh, while SA sits at just 0.027 tCO2/MWh and TAS at zero.

AEMO has issued a significant volume of market notices this morning, with prices for intervals from 03:30 through to 06:15 AEST flagged as subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs). Confirmed notices cover 02:40, 04:45, and 05:00 with prices unchanged following review. Intervals from 05:05 through 06:15 remain under active review as of the time of this briefing — traders should treat any dispatch prices in that window as potentially subject to revision until AEMO issues confirmation notices.

The outlook for today is shaped by solar ramp-up through the morning. With SA at only 8% cloud cover and temperatures mild at 20.8°C, SA solar output will build from sunrise and is likely to push SA prices toward or below zero in the middle of the day. NSW at 55% cloud cover and VIC at 100% overcast will see more subdued solar contributions, keeping those regions more dependent on coal and gas through the day. Heating demand is present in NSW (5.6), TAS (4.9), and VIC (3.2) given overnight temperatures, which will sustain morning demand ahead of the typical autumn taper. The binding interconnector conditions may ease as solar builds in SA and the VIC-NSW price spread narrows through the morning peak.