commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $11/MWh at 6:30 AEST with total demand at 5,596 MW — a figure that tells a clear story about where the market currently sits relative to today's earlier extremes. Demand peaked at 6,219 MW around 7:55 AEST, when prices were holding in the $118–$130/MWh range, illustrating tight price sensitivity at those load levels: each incremental step toward the 6,200 MW mark pushed prices firmly into triple digits. From that morning peak, demand has trended steadily lower through the business day, and the $11/MWh price reflects a market now well supplied relative to prevailing load.

The overnight and early-morning price history frames today's demand-price relationship sharply. Between approximately 1:30 AEST and 4:30 AEST, demand sat in the 3,250–3,670 MW range and spot prices ran negative, touching as low as -$7.25/MWh — supply was in clear excess of demand at those trough levels. As demand lifted from 4:00 AEST through the morning ramp, prices tracked the load recovery in near-linear fashion: $17–$18/MWh at 4,000–4,100 MW, $50–$100/MWh as demand crossed 5,000 MW, and sustained prices above $100/MWh once load exceeded 5,800 MW. That 5,800 MW threshold appears to be the inflection point where the market's marginal cost curve steepens materially.

The latest AEMO forecast for the next dispatch interval is $18.94/MWh, well below the morning peak pricing. With demand now on a declining trajectory from the 6,200 MW peak — and wind generation contributing 998 MW alongside 1,905 MW of brown coal at the current interval — supply adequacy is not a concern at this load level. The key demand-side watch for the rest of today is whether the evening ramp, which typically commences around 6:00 AEST, pushes demand back through the 5,800 MW threshold. If load climbs toward the 6,000–6,200 MW range again after 6:30 AEST with wind output unchanged, prices are positioned to re-enter the $80–$130/MWh range consistent with this morning's pattern.

Traders should also note that AEMO has issued multiple Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews covering intervals from 3:20 AEST through 6:15 AEST this morning, with the 5:50 AEST interval already confirmed unchanged. Prices for intervals 5:20 through 6:15 AEST remain subject to review — any revisions to these intervals would affect settlement but are unlikely to alter the demand-price narrative materially given the overnight confirmed price trajectory.