Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 29 March 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $66.30/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,355 MW. That price represents a significant recovery from the deep overnight negative territory — the region ran sub-zero from roughly 07:30 AEST Sunday through to 15:00 AEST, bottoming at -$9.73/MWh in the early hours as demand collapsed below 3,600 MW and surplus black coal generation flooded the market. The Monday morning ramp has since pushed prices back into the low-to-mid $60s range, consistent with the weekday business-hours pattern emerging through the data.

The generation mix is heavily coal-dominated. Black coal is contributing 2,762.79 MW — the overwhelming bulk of supply — with hydro adding 85.9 MW, solar a negligible 2.24 MW, and gas OCGT just 0.16 MW. Renewables are contributing only 3.09% of generation, a sharp drop from the overnight period when rooftop solar and wind were providing closer to 10–19% of a much smaller demand base. With the sun now up but cloud cover sitting at 85% and solar potential effectively zero, utility-scale and rooftop solar are making no material contribution this morning. Carbon intensity is 0.8528 tCO2/MWh — among the highest readings in the dataset and consistent with near-total coal dependency. Sustainability managers should note that Queensland's grid is at its dirtiest right now; the overnight window (when renewables reached 19.5% penetration and intensity dropped to 0.7084 tCO2/MWh) was substantially cleaner.

Predispatch forecasts are unanimously pointing to prices rising into the $72.75–$74.70/MWh range for the 07:00 AEST dispatch interval (21:00 UTC target). That represents an uplift of roughly $6–$8/MWh from the current price, driven by demand continuing to build toward the weekday morning peak. Traders with flexible load should note the load window data signals an excellent opportunity to shift consumption to the 08:30–09:30 AEST band (22:00–22:30 UTC), where prices are forecast as low as $3.55–$4.78/MWh — a saving of over 90% against current spot. The 09:00 AEST window (23:00 UTC) looks even more attractive, with forecast prices going negative again, down to -$5.26/MWh.

A significant volume of active market notices is in play. AEMO has issued "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering every trading interval from 04:55 AEST through to 06:30 AEST — seventeen consecutive intervals under active review. The 04:25 AEST interval has been resolved, with AEMO confirming prices unchanged after review. Traders should treat prices across the early morning ramp period as potentially subject to revision; settlement exposure for positions covering 05:00–06:30 AEST is not yet finalised. No specific affected regions are listed in the notices, suggesting the review trigger is a broader input data issue rather than a Queensland-specific constraint.