NEM Overview

Spot prices are running in a tight $107–$133/MWh band across the eastern states as of 06:25 AEST, with South Australia the dearest region at $132.65/MWh and Queensland the clear outlier at just $66.30/MWh. That $66/MWh spread between QLD and SA is the standout pricing story this morning. The NSW-QLD interconnector is binding at its import limit of -716.8 MW — Queensland is exporting at full capacity into NSW — which explains the relative softness in QLD prices. Victoria is simultaneously pushing 302.95 MW north into NSW and 527.25 MW west into SA, with SA's higher price reflecting its dependence on that Victorian import alongside 219.59 MW of gas CCGT to fill the gap after solar drops to zero overnight.

Renewable penetration is weak at 14.8% NEM-wide, consistent with a post-sunset interval. Tasmania is the sole bright spot at 100% renewable on 409 MW of hydro. SA leads the mainland at 60.73% renewable penetration courtesy of 339.57 MW of wind, while Queensland is at just 2.98% with 2,805 MW of black coal carrying the bulk of the load. NSW is similarly coal-heavy — 5,677 MW of black coal against a combined 105 MW of wind and solar — producing a carbon intensity of 0.82 tCO2/MWh. Victoria's 2,203 MW of brown coal pushes its intensity to 1.04 tCO2/MWh, the dirtiest region on the grid right now. Grid stress sits at 66.9/100, reflecting the binding interconnector and moderate overnight demand across all regions.

The dominant operational alert this morning is a sustained run of AEMO market notices flagging prices subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering every five-minute interval from 03:00 through to 06:25 AEST — over three hours of consecutive reviews, all still active. One earlier interval (04:25) has been confirmed with prices unchanged, but the remainder are unresolved. Traders should treat any settled positions in that window with caution until AEMO concludes its review. The volume and duration of these notices is atypical and warrants close monitoring through the morning session.

Weather conditions offer little relief for renewables today. Cloud cover is 80–95% across all eastern regions with near-zero solar potential, and wind speeds are light to calm in NSW and QLD. SA has a modest wind potential score of 1.4, consistent with the 339 MW currently generating. As the morning load ramp proceeds, gas peakers and coal will be doing the heavy lifting, and with the NSW-QLD interconnector already binding, any further demand uplift in NSW could tighten SA and VIC prices further into the business day.