commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $119.16/MWh with total demand at 5,779 MW — the highest level recorded across the 24-hour dataset and up sharply from the overnight trough of around 2,140 MW reached in the early hours. The price-demand relationship today has been textbook: prices tracked negative as low as -$60/MWh during the pre-dawn period when demand collapsed below 2,200 MW, with excess generation — predominantly 2,201 MW of brown coal running baseload — flooding the grid and forcing dispatchers to pay to offload power. As demand climbed through the morning, prices recovered through zero and into positive territory, crossing $65/MWh around 7:00 AEST as demand surpassed 4,700 MW.

The evening demand ramp is the dominant price driver right now. Demand has risen roughly 1,600 MW over the past three hours as the post-sunset heating load builds — Victoria is recording 11.1°C with a heating demand index of 6.9 and cloud cover at 84%, eliminating any solar contribution. Wind is generating just 367 MW, providing minimal renewable offset at only 13.71% of the mix. Gas OCGT is running 110 MW to assist with peaking, but the generation stack is heavily reliant on brown coal's 2,201 MW flat baseload, which is structurally ill-suited to absorbing rapid evening demand swings. The result is a steepening price curve: the most recent four intervals have all printed above $97/MWh, with two touching $118–119/MWh.

AEMO's forecast for the 7:00 AEST target period is $80.28/MWh, down from an earlier forecast of $93.12/MWh issued mid-morning — suggesting dispatchers expect demand to ease slightly from its current peak as the dinner-hour surge dissipates. That moderation is consistent with the typical Victorian demand profile where the evening peak plateaus between 6:30 and 8:00 AEST before dropping sharply as households wind down. Traders should note that AEMO has issued a large volume of market notices flagging prices between 05:00 and 06:30 AEST as subject to review under clause 3.9.2B (manifestly incorrect inputs) — these relate to the deep negative price period and are not yet resolved, meaning early-morning settlement values remain at risk of revision.

The near-term price outlook hinges on how quickly this demand peak rolls over. Load windows signal prices in the $9–34/MWh range from 08:00 AEST onward as demand retreats toward the overnight trough. Any sustained demand above 5,500 MW beyond 8:30 AEST — possible given the cold, overcast conditions — would keep the price well above the forward forecast. The absence of meaningful wind or dispatchable renewable capacity to absorb this peak is the key structural constraint on price relief.