regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $57.53/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,488 MW. That figure is well below today's daytime peak, which pushed to $84.73/MWh during the morning ramp around 17:30 AEST, before easing as demand fell through the afternoon and evening. The overnight session was characterised by extended negative pricing — bottoming at -$33.15/MWh in the early hours — driven by surplus baseload relative to low overnight demand that troughed near 3,200 MW. The current price represents a recovery back into positive territory as the grid moves toward the morning demand build.

The generation mix is overwhelmingly coal-dominated. Black coal is supplying 2,344.5 MW, representing the vast majority of scheduled generation, with hydro contributing 85.82 MW and solar a negligible 6.96 MW at this pre-dawn hour. Gas OCGT output is effectively zero at 0.16 MW. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.81% — consistent with the overnight and early morning range of 2.9–4.2% seen across recent intervals, well below the midday solar-assisted peaks recorded earlier in the price history. This is a coal-heavy grid profile typical of Queensland's overnight-to-early-morning window.

Carbon intensity sits at 0.8465 tCO2/MWh, essentially flat across the past several hours and among the highest readings of the 24-hour window. Intensity dipped as low as 0.7278 tCO2/MWh earlier around 16:30 AEST when rooftop and utility solar were lifting renewable penetration toward 17%, but as solar has dropped out overnight, coal has filled the gap and intensity has firmed back toward the 0.85 tCO2/MWh range. Sustainability managers should note that scope 2 emissions from Queensland grid consumption are at their highest point of the day right now.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading interval point to prices in the $40–$53/MWh range, with the most recent run showing $53.54/MWh — a signal that prices are expected to hold roughly around current levels into the morning rather than spike sharply. The optimal load window flagged from 08:00–09:00 AEST (UTC+10 equivalent) shows negative forecast prices in the -$6 to -$10/MWh range, suggesting another round of surplus conditions is anticipated as overnight baseload outruns early Sunday demand before the morning ramp. Traders and flexible load operators should position accordingly. One confirmed notice is active: AEMO reviewed the 04:10 AEST interval under Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs and confirmed prices unchanged. Additionally, AEMO has issued a continuous run of "Prices Subject to Review" notices covering intervals from 03:05 AEST through to 16:30 AEST today under the same clause — all currently active and unresolved, meaning a wide swathe of today's published prices remain subject to potential revision. Traders with settlement exposure across those intervals should monitor AEMO market notices closely.