NEM Overview

Tasmania is the overnight price outlier at $96.24/MWh against a NEM mainland range of $57.65–$65.51/MWh, with the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) sitting at zero flow — the interconnector is neither importing nor exporting, leaving Tasmania to balance itself on hydro (332 MW) and a small wind contribution (16 MW). That isolation explains the premium. On the mainland, NSW leads demand at 6,559 MW at $65.51/MWh, with Victoria (4,634 MW, $59.53/MWh) and SA (1,219 MW, $61.55/MWh) tightly clustered. Queensland is the cheapest region at $57.65/MWh despite running 2,422 MW of black coal. The NSW–QLD interconnector is binding on its import limit at -566 MW, meaning Queensland is pushing power north into NSW at the constraint ceiling — the $7.86/MWh spread between the two regions is the direct consequence.

Renewable penetration is the standout weakness this morning. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at just 19.5% on the gridIQ score, and the regional data bears that out: NSW is at 6.6% renewables (35 MW wind, 135 MW solar, 141 MW hydro against 4,384 MW black coal), Queensland at 3.4% (86 MW hydro only, with solar at zero), and Victoria at 5.7% (139 MW wind, brown coal dominating at 2,186 MW). SA is the outlier in the right direction — 83% renewable penetration driven by 490 MW of wind, with 214 MW flowing out to Victoria via V-SA. Tasmania is 100% renewable as usual. It is overnight across all eastern regions, so solar contributing zero is expected; wind output is also underwhelming in NSW and Victoria given wind speeds of 3 and 1.5 km/h respectively.

The dominant market notice story is an extraordinary run of AEMO price reviews under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering every trading interval from 02:30 through to 06:25 AEST this morning — over 30 consecutive five-minute intervals flagged. AEMO confirmed that the 02:05 and 04:10 intervals were reviewed and prices left unchanged, but a large block of intervals from roughly 03:30 onwards remains under active review. Traders with positions in this window should treat currently published prices as provisional. WA sits at $107.80/MWh on a stale read from the SWIS, with demand data unavailable.

With heating demand building (Tasmania at 10.5°C, NSW at 13.2°C) and solar generation absent overnight, the morning ramp will be the key watch point today. Renewable penetration will lift sharply once solar comes online — SA is cloud-free and NSW nearly so — but the price review backlog and the binding NSW–QLD interconnector constraint are the active risks to monitor as the market opens the trading day.