Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 27 March 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $55.40/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,644 MW — well below the morning peak seen earlier in the day when demand reached 8,007 MW and prices tracked in the $62–68/MWh range through business hours. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: the region ran deep into negative territory overnight, with prices touching as low as -$10.01/MWh between roughly midnight and 04:00 AEST before demand and prices recovered as the morning ramp progressed. The current $55.40/MWh represents a normalised Saturday morning level, softer than yesterday's equivalent business-day peak.
The generation mix is heavily coal-dependent right now. Black coal is contributing 2,572 MW — the dominant source by a wide margin — with hydro adding 86 MW, solar a negligible 2 MW, and gas OCGT just 0.16 MW. Renewable penetration sits at a thin 3.33%, consistent with where it has been anchored throughout the daylight and evening hours. Carbon intensity is 0.8507 tCO2/MWh, one of the highest readings in the dataset; this contrasts sharply with the overnight window, when wind and hydro pushed the renewable share above 23% and intensity dropped as low as 0.6677 tCO2/MWh around 12:30 AEST overnight. Solar generation is essentially absent despite clear skies (0% cloud cover per weather data), which at 06:30 AEST is expected — meaningful solar output will begin building within the next 30–60 minutes and should progressively lift renewable penetration through the late morning.
Predispatch forecasts are pointing to a modest price softening from current levels, with the 07:00 AEST interval forecast at $52.75/MWh. Load window signals are strongly "excellent" for the 07:30–09:00 AEST window, with forecast prices ranging from flat $0/MWh to negative territory as low as -$33.15/MWh — consistent with the solar-driven oversupply dynamic that regularly produces negative prices in Queensland on low-demand weekend mornings. Flexibility operators and large loads should treat the 08:00–10:00 AEST window as a high-value consumption opportunity.
AEMO has issued a substantial volume of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from 01:40 AEST through to 06:30 AEST today. Several earlier intervals — 02:15, 02:25, 02:45, 03:40, 04:15, and 04:40 AEST — have since been confirmed with prices unchanged following review, but intervals from 05:15 through 06:30 AEST remain under active review. Traders with positions referencing these intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO closes out each notice. The pattern of reviews across the overnight negative-price window suggests AEMO is scrutinising dispatch inputs during the low-demand, high-renewable period — a recurring trigger for MII reviews in QLD.